Northdale Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

242
FXUS62 KTBW 131801
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
201 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
An upper level low around the Carolinas will shift to the northeast
and merge with a secondary upper low as it dives southward across
the Mid Atlantic region into tonight. As this occurs, the occluded
nor`easter associated with this feature will remain rather
stationary through the remainder of the day before finally shifting
further out into the Atlantic over the coming days. Between the
departing upper trough/low and a building ridge across the
Southern Plains, our region remains in a deep layer northerly flow
and this will continue to keep a dry air mass in place across
west central and southwest Florida with mostly rain-free
conditions through the middle of the week. However, recent
guidance has been suggesting that there may be a back door cold
front that slides through the region into the late Wednesday/Thursday
time frame as an expansive area of high pressure shifts eastward
across the Great Lakes and troughing aloft becomes more amplified
across the western Atlantic. While this type of set up would
typically favor at least some low rain chances on the eastern side
of the peninsula as showers from the Atlantic come ashore and
move inland, it isn`t entirely out of the question that some of
this activity perhaps moves inland enough to bring some very light
activity in some of our southern interior counties. However,
forecast confidence in anything measurable remains too low to
include any mentionable PoPs in the forecast at this time but
even if a few light showers does develop, any activity would be
very light and low-topped in nature.
Upper level ridging shifts eastward off the Eastern Seaboard by
late week and into the weekend with surface high pressure sliding
into the western Atlantic. This will bring an increase in deeper
moisture into the region as a more south-southeastly low level flow
develops ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold front. The
frontal boundary should pass through some time late Sunday into
early Monday with PoPs increasing from north to south across the
area, though rainfall amounts are not expected be enough to
recover from the dry conditions that have been observed recently.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day as
high pressure remains in control. Winds shift to the NE overnight
but start to shift to more of a N-NW direction by Tuesday
afternoon as the sea breeze develops at coastal sites with winds
around 5-10 kts tomorrow.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
High pressure north of the area will maintain mostly northeasterly
winds generally less than 15 kts, though there will be a six hour
period each evening beginning around sunset where winds could
increase to exercise cautionary levels during this time. Winds
will shift to the east or southeast by late week and into the
weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the region by late
weekend, which will bring the next chance of precipitation.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Minimum RH levels may fall to near critical levels over the coming
days as drier air continues to filter into the region, but in
general values should remain 40 percent in most areas. Winds will
generally be out of the north or northeast through the middle of
the week but wind speeds should be less than critical levels so
red flag conditions are not expected at this time. Humidity levels
should gradually recover by the end of the week and into the
weekend as the winds start to shift more to the east and
southeast, which will bring higher moisture into the area but the
forecast looks mostly dry until the weekend when the next frontal
boundary arrives.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  88  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  67  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  65  87  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  66  87  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  59  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  70  85  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion