Northeast, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

426
FXUS64 KOHX 251734
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1234 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Medium rain chances (30-50%) continue today with drier
  conditions west of the Plateau beginning tomorrow.
- Low rain chances across the Plateau this weekend. Areas west
  remain dry with warming temperatures.
- Overall dry weather into early next week with temperatures
  remaining above-normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A positively-tilted trough is currently stretched from Texas through
the Great Lakes region and is making a slow eastward progression.
Some embedded vorticity maxima are evident on water vapor imagery
with one near the Missouri Bootheel. Meanwhile, we continue to
experience mostly cloudy skies here in Middle TN with the approach
of a surface front to our north. A few patches of light to moderate
rain showers are starting to appear as well. Overall, it appears
we`ll experience decreasing rain coverage and intensity today
compared to the past few days. PWs have fallen to ~1.5", down from
~2.0" yesterday. A scattering of rain showers are expected through
the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms should instability
increase enough. Either way, no severe weather or flooding is
anticipated today. Convection will gradually wane after sunset, and
we`ll likely have patchy fog east of I-65 tonight, with locally
dense fog possible in valleys up through the Cumberland Plateau.
The aforementioned vort max to our west is progged to separate from
the overall trough axis tomorrow, becoming a cut-off low that will
linger in the region for a couple of days. However, the surface
front will continue southeastward which will suppress moisture
favorable for rain showers to the Plateau region. Friday will be a
great weather day overall with highs in the low 80s for the rain-
free areas west of the Appalachians.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A relatively warm, dry weekend is shaping up for Middle Tennessee.
Outside of a few rain showers across the Plateau on Saturday, most
areas will dry out with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid
80s. The overall pattern should remain fairly quiet into next week
but with influence of a deep-layer ridge buidling to our west which
will favor warm, dry weather. This will result in above-normal
temperatures through at least Tuesday it appears. Otherwise the most
notable weather story will be tropical considerations across the
western Atlantic and Bahamas region next week.&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Variable conditions are expected through the morning, but mainly
MVFR cigs/vsbys for BNA and MQY, and mainly IFR at CKV, SRB, and
CSV. Improvement to VFR will occur area-wide by 19Z, but brief
impacts from showers and storms will then be possible through the
afternoon. A front will pass through the area by this evening and
plenty of post-frontal moisture will remain. So, conditions will
deteriorate after 00Z as cigs/vsbys drop with areas of stratus
and fog.
Winds will be light, mainly southwest today, shifting to northwest
as the front passes this afternoon and evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Middle TN airfields remains in MVFR cigs currently, though
there`s improvement evident on satellite imagery. A front is also
working into the area so winds are somewhat variable ahead of the
front, though will become NW behind the front. Despite some
apparent improvement in cigs, afternoon rain showers are forecast,
so I`ve TEMPO`d all terminals. Favored SHRA in lieu of TS due to
more stable conditions. Expecting LIFR/IFR conditions at SRB/CSV
tonight due to both vis/cig, and MVFR cig potential at BNA and MQY
09-15z. Winds become N tomorrow at 5-10 kts with clearing skies.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  82  59  84 /  20  10   0  10
Clarksville    57  82  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     60  74  57  75 /  20  40  10  30
Columbia       60  80  56  82 /  30  10   0  10
Cookeville     61  77  57  78 /  20  20  10  20
Jamestown      60  74  57  75 /  20  30  10  30
Lawrenceburg   60  79  56  81 /  30  20   0  10
Murfreesboro   61  80  58  82 /  20  10   0  10
Waverly        56  79  54  82 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion