Nulato, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXAK69 PAFG 272308
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level troughing pattern continues across Northern
Alaska, as a ridge of high pressure builds in across the West
Coast and Western Interior. A low pressure system in the Gulf of
Alaska and another low in the Beaufort Sea will continue to
support rain and snow chances across the Central/Eastern Interior,
Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and North Slope into early next week, as
much of the Western Interior and West Coast remain mostly dry. An
arctic trough working between these two systems will help bring in
a colder airmass for early next week, supporting increased
chances for accumulating snow across lower elevations with best
chances across mid and high elevations. Looking west, confidence
continues to increase on a low pressure system working east out of
Siberia into Western Alaska late Monday into Tuesday into
Wednesday, supporting widespread rain/snow chances and stronger
winds building into our region, especially along the West Coast.
The strength and track of this low will ultimately determine any
impacts, so stay tuned as we will continue to track and evaluate
this system over the coming days.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers through Monday.
- High confidence in widespread light accumulating snowfall
  through Monday, with highest totals expected across mid and
  high elevations.
- Lows continue to reach near to below freezing, supporting
  widespread frost/freeze conditions, as we continue to wait for
  the record latest first freeze at Fairbanks International
  Airport.
- Highs in the low 30s to low 40s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Mostly sunny, quiet, and dry conditions continue through
  Monday, with isolated showers along the West Coast.
- Increasing confidence supports a low pressure system moving out
  of Siberia into Western Alaska late Monday into Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with widespread precipitation and gusty winds
  expected.
- Highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow through early next week,
  primarily across the North Slope and Central/Eastern Brooks
  Range.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range. Overnight lows in the Brooks Range
  in the single digits and teens.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a broad upper level
troughing pattern over Northern Alaska, as a ridge of high
pressure builds into Western Alaska. A low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska and another low in the Beaufort Sea will continue
to support rain and snow chances across the Central/Eastern
Interior, Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and North Slope into early next
week, as much of the Western Interior and West Coast remain mostly
dry under the increasing influence of high pressure building in
out of the west. An arctic trough working between these two
systems will help bring in a colder airmass for Sunday and Monday,
supporting increased chances for accumulating snow across lower
elevations around the Interior, Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and Eastern
Arctic Coast, with highest totals expected across mid and high
elevations. These colder temperatures moving in will help support
a changeover from a rain/snow mix to all snow tonight, as surface
temperature drop below freezing region wide. Should we reach
freezing or colder tonight at Fairbanks International Airport,
tomorrow will tie the all-time record latest ever freeze for
Fairbanks since records began in 1905. Elsewhere, drier conditions
will continue across the West Coast and Western Interior, outside
of a low chance for an isolated shower.
As for precipitation accumulations, amounts continue to remain
light overall with around 0.10-0.50" inches of QPF through the end
of the weekend across the Central/Eastern Interior, Alaska Range,
Central/Eastern Brooks Range, and Eastern Arctic Coast. With
respect to snowfall, there continues to be some uncertainty
regarding how much snow we will see across lower elevations
tonight into Sunday, given temperatures above freezing and warmer
ground conditions that would need to be overcome. Nonetheless,
confidence remains high to support accumulating snowfall,
primarily on elevated and grassy surfaces, across lower
elevations. Snowfall amounts through Sunday are expected to be
around a T-1" in the Tanana River Valley and Fairbanks Bowl, 1-3"
across the Yukon Flats, and 3-8" across mid and high elevations of
the Alaska/Brooks Ranges and White Mountains. A Special Weather
Statements remains in effect through Sunday for this region to
capture these snowfall amounts.
As we progress into early next week, precipitation chances shift
north and east across the Eastern Interior north to the Arctic
Coast, as a ridge of high pressure continues to build in from
Western Alaska. This ridge will keep conditions mostly dry to
begin the work week, as afternoon highs begin to see a warming
trend especially across the Interior. However, overnight lows will
continue to remain cool in the teens/20s/30s region wide with
single digits in the Brooks Range.
Confidence continues to increase on a low pressure system working
east out of Siberia into Western Alaska late Monday into Tuesday
into Wednesday, supporting widespread rain/snow chances and
stronger winds building into our region, especially along the West
Coast. The strength and track of this low will ultimately
determine any impacts, so stay tuned as we will continue to track
and evaluate this system over the coming days. Overall, following
an extended stretch of fairly quiet weather along the West Coast,
higher confidence supports the return of a more active weather as
we finish out the month of September and head into early October.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Saturday.
Ensemble model guidance remains in good agreement midweek, as a
troughing pattern and associated low pressure systems take shape
across the Bering Sea and Northern Alaska. There remains subtle
differences on the timing and exact paths, but the overall trends
continue to support an increase in widespread precipitation
chances, warmer temperatures, and gusty winds heading into
Wednesday. This pattern setup would support not only widespread
precipitation chances along the West Coast, but also gusty winds
and potential coastal flooding. While it is too early to pin down
the exact details, it is worth noting the increasing confidence in
this pattern following an overall very quiet month of September
along the West Coast. Additional low pressure systems tracking
through this broad troughing pattern will support continued
precipitation chances through the rest of next week, in addition
to areas of strong winds at times. Stay tuned as we track how this
pattern evolves over the coming days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Increasing confidence supports stronger winds building into the
Bering Sea late Monday into Tuesday, with the potential for low
end gale force winds along the West Coast and Northwest Arctic
Coast. There remains subtle differences on the timing and exact
paths which will impact the trajectory and strength of the
strongest winds, but the overall trends continue to support
an uptick in winds overall which will be monitored next week.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&
$$
MacKay

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion