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Oakhill Cemetery Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS63 KDTX 151930
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost possible in rural areas outside the Thumb tonight.

- Dry weather and normal mid October temperatures in place through Thursday.

- Warmer air arrives Friday and Saturday with scattered rain chances mainly in the north daytime Friday.

- Increasing likelihood of a stronger low pressure system to track across the Great Lakes late Saturday-Sunday bringing widespread rain, windy conditions, and cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated frontal slope that generated light morning showers has been shunted well south over OH this afternoon as surface high pressure over the northern Great Lakes expands over southern lower MI. A generally favorable radiative cooling setup tonight as the high centers over lower MI promoting clear skies and lighter north- northeasterly winds. Given the high center holding over northern lower MI, there still looks to be just enough of a gradient to prevent winds going completely calm which offers some potential weak moisture flux off Lake Huron focused in the Thumb. Overall probabilities for 35F or below largely unchanged from prior discussion with rural locations outside the Thumb still looking at a 10-30% chance. As such, running forecast will highlight patchy frost potential tonight however the limited coverage and low probability of occurrence doesn`t warrant the issuance of a Frost Advisory.

Surface high pressure and parent upper ridging drifts overhead into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday in response to a closed, nearly vertically stacked low lifting out of the High Plains into northwestern Ontario. Elevated warm front tied to this low eventually lifts through the central Great Lakes Friday morning- afternoon re-establishing warm southerly flow back into the region. 850mb temps to rise to 12-13C by late evening placing right around the 90th percentile for mid October. Resultant highs return to the mid-upper 60s Friday and solid 70s Saturday- some near 80s possible towards the Ohio border. Rain chances along the initial fropa are focused mostly over areas north of I-69 owing to their closer proximity to the main mid-level moisture surge that is directed at northern lower MI.

Energetic Pacific Northwest jet phases with a southern stream shortwave Saturday leading to amplification of the upper trough over the Midwest with most mid-range models advertising the development of a modest negative tilt. This supports rapid cyclogensis near the upper Mississippi River valley with the new surface low quickly maturing as it tracks into the western Great Lakes Saturday night. Exactly deep this low gets still carries some uncertainty with ensembles still showing a fair degree of spread (10-15mb differences). That said, the ENS (and deterministic ECMWF) has begun trending more in line with the more amplified GEFS/GFS solutions suggesting a higher likelihood of a stronger, more dynamic surface low tracking over the Great Lakes. In these stronger solutions, forecast soundings depict a WSW 50-60kt LLJ at 2kft by Sunday afternoon raising concern for wind gusts to exceed 45mph for the latter half of the day. For the precip side of this system, rain chances begin increasing (15-25%) late Saturday afternoon with the main wider spread rainfall arriving Saturday night-Sunday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible Sunday afternoon in advance of the surface cold front when mid-level lapse rates steepen towards 6.5- 7C/km and a couple hundred J/kg of MLCAPE develop. Severe weather is not anticipated at this point however due to the lackluster available instability. Rain shield peels away from SE MI by late Sunday night-early Monday morning as the low pushes towards Quebec.

&&

.MARINE...

A high pressure system will build over the Great Lakes today, centering over the region by tomorrow morning. This will bring light winds and dry weather that will last through tomorrow night. High pressure will then wash out across New England while a low pressure system strengthens and moves over western Ontario. This will both strengthen a pressure gradient over the Great Lakes as a warm front moves in, which will veer wind direction to the south-southwest while with wind speeds increasing shortly thereafter. Sustained winds of 20 knots with gust potential around 25 knots will be likely after the passage of the front starting Friday evening which will continue through Saturday. There will be a chance for showers with embedded thunderstorms with the frontal passage. A second low pressure system is then expected to develop and move over the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday, bringing additional rain and thunderstorm chances in addition to the sustainment of breezy conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

AVIATION...

Varying levels of clouds this afternoon as we deal with the lingering mid clouds from the system that passed through the area this morning and moisture advection off Lake Huron resulting in some CIGS around 2-3kft. Expectations are for high pressure to continue building into region with northerly winds bringing increasingly drier air into lower MI. Clouds should decrease in coverage after peak heating today going clear overnight. Signal still there for some patchy lake stratus to move ashore off Lake Huron Thursday morning with some cirrus possible by the afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection... The high pressure dominated weather pattern does not support thunderstorms today and tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon, low this evening and tonight.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. &&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......AM AVIATION.....DRK

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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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