Oaklawn, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

546
FXUS63 KICT 080756
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain and thunderstorm chances expected across
  central Kansas this morning with a strong to marginally severe
  storm possible.
- Additional, non-severe thunderstorms are expected across
  eastern Kansas this evening and into Tuesday morning.
- Near normal temperatures are expected to return by the middle
  of the week and last into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Currently, the upper-level trough and the associated surface high
continue to shift east over the Great Lakes region and into the
Northeast U.S. As the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest shifts
towards the Plains, we have transitioned into a more northwesterly
flow. A shortwave trough located across western Nebraska is
beginning to dive southeast into the Central Plains along the
northern periphery of the approaching ridge. Satellite imagery
shows moisture ahead of this feature to the west working its way
east into central and eastern Kansas. Surface observations also
show higher dewpoints across western Kansas with dewpoints in
the lower 60s. Locations in central and eastern Kansas are
currently seeing dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s. A few
showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop in north-
central Kansas along this moisture gradient.
For today and tonight, we will see showers and thunderstorms develop
across central Kansas this morning as the leading edge of the wave
interacts with the LLJ. While severe weather is not expected, a
brief stronger storm with marginally severe hail could be possible
as around 1000 J/kg of CAPE and shear upwards of 40 kts will be
present this morning. We will see a brief lull in activity around
midday into the early afternoon hours, but will then see a
resurgence of convection across eastern Kansas later this afternoon
and into the evening hours as the main impulse of the shortwave
traverses the region. We`re not anticipating severe weather for
eastern Kansas this evening as the better instability and shear will
be located further south and west over southwest Kansas and
northwest Oklahoma.
As we move through the week, the ridge to our west will continue to
build back over the region. This will support the gradual warming
trend with highs in the lower 80s for Tuesday and temperatures
nearing normal through the end of the week and into the weekend with
highs in the middle to upper 80s. Overnight lows will stabilize in
the 60s through the end of the period. With the upper ridge parking
over the Central and Southern Plains by Wednesday, it will limit our
precip chances through the end of the period. Though, with the top
of the ridge axis centered overhead, we could see low rain chances
with any of the small perturbations in the pattern that pass across
the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The main concern to aviation will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A few strong storms could be capable of small
hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. For now included
a PROB30 as there is some uncertainty in timing and whether they
will directly impact terminal sites. These storms are expected
to start at RSL and GBD then progress east/southeast to the
other sites and possibly fester into the early afternoon.
Additionally, gusty southerly winds will pick up by mid-morning
Monday and continue through the afternoon with gusts up to 30
kts.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...GC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion