Oaksville New York Weather Forecast Discussion

994
FXUS61 KBGM 111213
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
813 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves in today with increasing clouds and an
increasing chance for rain showers this afternoon and evening.
There will be a better chance of rain Sunday night into Monday
as the western side of a coastal low pressure system impacts the
area. Cooler and drier weather returns by the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stacked area of low pressure is moving in to NY and PA today.
The low will slowly be filling through the day with light rain
showers moving into the Finger Lakes region later this morning
into the early afternoon. Another low off of the Carolina coast
leads to onshore flow in the Mid Atlantic with moisture
advecting into our region later this afternoon into the evening
out of the SE. With the low becoming decoupled with its jet
support tonight, any precipitation that lingers becomes very
light and likely more limited to higher terrain as drizzle.
What is left of the low will meander back to the west on Sunday
as the coastal low off of the Carolinas begins to propagate
northward. This will help pull more moisture from the Atlantic
westward into our region. There is not much synoptic lift with
the 250 mb jet weakening and lifting northward but strong 925
and 850 mb flow out of the east will advect the saturated air
mass into the Poconos and Catskills. East facing slopes are
favorable for orographic lift Sunday into Sunday night that
could lead to persistent rain and higher QPF than modeled. With
downslope winds into the Twin Tiers and CNY, precipitation will
struggle but precipitation chances were kept as what remains
aloft of Saturdays low will provide some marginal lift.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure and a ridge in Maine and a stacked low
pressure system off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday into Tuesday,
a brief rex block sets up. Saturated easterly flow persist for
the Catskills and Poconos with some spill over precipitation
into CNY and the Twin Tiers. Right now storm total QPF has east
facing slopes getting 1 to 2 inches of rain but with some
stability in the mid levels, that may enhance rain rates
especially Monday afternoon and evening when 850 mb winds
approach 50 knots out of the east. Would not be surprised if
areas in Sullivan County, Wayne county, and Pike counties where
topography lines up best sees up to 3 inches of rain between
Sunday night into Tuesday Morning.
A trough digging into the West Coast of the US along with a
strengthening net in the northern plains will help kick the rex
block to the east. With a large ridge building in the central US
ahead of the western trough, NW flow in the Northeast opens the
door for a cooler and drier airmass advecting in Tuesday night
into Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is a good amount of spread in how cool the airmass
Wenesday into Friday is. Models have trended cooler with 850 mb
temperatures back down around 0C Thursday so high temperatures
struggle to get into the 50s and another chance at a widespread
freeze overnight. There is also hints at a shortwave moving
around the central US ridge and depending how far east the ridge
axis ends up being. If the central US ridge axis is far enough
west for the shortwave to pass through NY and PA, some rain
showers and lake effect is possible Thursday and Friday. It may
even be cold enough overnight that some snow tries to mix in at
higher elevations so a rain/snow mix has been added into the Tug
Hill into portions of CNY. The longwave ridge axis moves east
late week with warming temperatures and dry weather into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions will be mainly VFR for most of the daytime hours. A
system will bring scattered rain showers to areas along and
west of I-81 after 21z today. With this system ceilings and
visibilities will be slightly reduced. MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings
are expected at AVP, BGM, ELM, and ITH. Of those, AVP is the
only one expected to improve back to VFR prior to 12z Sunday.
SYR will be on the edge of the showers, so a tempo group was
added to cover the one or two showers that may pass through.
Despite the low chance for showers there, conditions should
remain VFR. RME will be too far east for any showers.
South to southwest winds will be slightly breezy with sustained
speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts around 15 kt. Winds then become
more westerly and calmer. A coastal system will move north along
the Carolina Coast tonight. Stronger winds associated with this
system will extend northward into Northeastern PA so AVP will
likely see winds pick back up early Sunday morning.
Outlook...
Sunday through Monday...On and off rounds of rain with
associated restrictions.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A few rain showers cannot be ruled out,
especially at the Central NY terminals.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion