Oakvale, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

909
FXUS61 KRNK 150709
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep our weather dry through today. A
coastal low may bring an opportunity for light beginning
tonight through Wednesday night. Dry conditions return for the
latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1) Mostly dry, but increasing clouds.
Dry weather continues today with light northerly flow due to
high pressure wedging and low pressure moving up the North
Carolina coast. Increasing cloud cover is expected and this
will result in slightly cooler high temperatures today in the
70s areawide. Some showers may begin to push into the Piedmont
from the east this evening with relatively light QPF amounts.
Overnight, additional showers push farther west. Overnight lows
will be in the mid to upper 50s.
Confidence in the near term is high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1. Rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday.
2. Cooler Tuesday with a gradual increase for midweek.
Stalled low pressure off NC will continue to channel moisture
into the area, and upper level vorticity will support light
showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The highest probabilities for
rain are along and east of the Blue Ridge. QPF looks relatively
low, but amounts over a half inch to an inch will be possible
over the entire period over the eastern Piedmont. This pattern
is not favorable for convective development, so removed most
thunder form the forecast. Precipitation will come to an end for
the area as the low moves away Wednesday.
Afternoon highs will be tempered by cloud cover and rain
Tuesday and Wednesday, with a high probability of below normal
temperatures, especially Tuesday. A gradual warm up begins
Wednesday with highs just a couple degrees below normal by
Thursday.
Confidence in the short term is high.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
1. Drier weather late in the week, but rain chances return for
the weekend.
2. Near normal temperatures Friday and Saturday before
temperatures drop on Sunday.
High pressure will return to the area and bring dry conditions
for the end of the work week, and weak ridging aloft and
increasing heights will promote warming temperatures. A trough
will deepen over the Plains and Upper Midwest during the
weekend, and pushes a cold front towards the Appalachians late
Friday into Saturday. Winds turn south to southwesterly ahead
of the front, which will bring more moisture and warmer air into
the region, bumping temperatures up a few degrees above normal,
as well as increasing dew points. Scattered afternoon showers
are possible beginning Saturday afternoon, as well as isolated
thunderstorms, given the increasing instability with warmer
temperatures and more moisture available. At this time the
severe weather threat looks low.
Friday looks to be the warmest day of the period, with highs
dropping back to near or below normal for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
Scattered mid clouds are arriving from the southeast this
morning. Expect cloud cover to increase from E to W across
most area terminals as a surface low off the NC coast
retrogrades slightly. Despite this, flight categories across
area terminals should remain VFR. The exception to this could be
across terminals in the Greenbrier and New River Valleys, where
VSBYs and/or CIGs could briefly fall into MVFR and IFR
territory in patchy fog early this morning and again
overnight tonight. ENE winds should remain under 10 kts through
the forecast period.
OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
Monday Night: ISOLD-SCTD -SHRA across Southside VA/NC Piedmont
terminals could result in restrictions. Farther west,
restrictions look unlikely but there may be some light showers
around. Lower VSBYs will be possible W of the Blue Ridge due to
late night/early morning BR in river valleys.
Thursday-Thursday night: Flight categories should improve as a
storm system moves away from the region. No restrictions are
expected.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...AS/SH
AVIATION...SH

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion