Oakville School West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

498
FXUS61 KRLX 151441
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1041 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture starved cold front crossing today will bring cooler
and continued dry weather to close out the work week. Warmer
Saturday followed by a cold front with rain and wind Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1040 AM Wednesday...
Updated to raise sky cover, and lower cloud heights,
temperatures and dew points into this afternoon to account for
the widespread fog lifting into stratus and stratocumulus across
much of WV and southwest Virginia this morning, all per shallow
moisture still trapped beneath a stout low level inversion.
As of 330 AM Wednesday...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a strong fog signature
along our mainstem rivers and their tributaries, with
visibilities reduced to a mile or less at local airports. Will
continue to monitor satellite trends and traffic webcams for
possible need of a Special Weather Statement or a Dense Fog
Advisory ahead of this morning`s commute.
The latest surface analysis paints a cold front through the
lower Ohio Valley up into the eastern Great Lakes region. This
boundary is slated to travel through the forecast area today,
imposing little to no impacts during the course of its passage.
Increased cloud cover is likely to transpire in the next few
hours along the front and will gradually scatter out this
afternoon and evening. An influential upper level ridge parked
to our west has retained enough dry air over the region to
reduce any showers or storms from developing along the front,
yielding a dry forecast for today.
In the wake of the front, winds veer out of the northwest by
this evening, inviting cooler air associated with building high
pressure to filter down into the area. This will yield
overnight low temperatures to bottom out into the 30s and
potential frost formation for parts of the northeast West
Virginia mountains by Thursday morning. Opted to hoist a Frost
Advisory for areas most susceptible to the anticipated frost
development starting late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...
High pressure perusing the Upper Great Lakes region at the start
of the forecast period will gradually pivot down into the Mid-
Atlantic for the end of the work week. This surface feature will
supply predominantly dry weather across the Central Appalachians
and a subtle warming trend for Thursday and Friday. Daytime
highs on Thursday will range closer to their climatological norm
for this time of year in the wake of Wednesday`s dry cold front,
but will rise back into the 60s and 70s for Friday afternoon.
By late Thursday night, the center of the surface high is
progged to be positioned over the forecast area, yielding strong
radiational cooling amid clear skies and weak surface flow. As a
result, much of the forecast area will see overnight lows plunge
down into the mid to upper 30s, with mountain locations dropping
near or below freezing. Additional frost/freeze headlines will
likely be needed for Thursday night, but will hold off from
doing so with this forecast package to allow more time to key
in on potential affected counties and the impacts from this
upcoming freeze.
Only other thing of note within the short term period will be
the abundant amounts of dry air noted on forecast soundings
parked just above the surface each afternoon. As daytime mixing
transpires, especially along slightly breezy flow over the
mountains, this drier air could loft down to the surface and
bring dew points lower than currently forecast. Minimum relative
humidity values bottom out into the 30s/40s on Thursday as it
currently stands, but further drops into the upper 20s to low
30s for Friday afternoon. However, the aforementioned
positioning of the surface high overhead by Friday will
diminish the breezier profile winds and decrease opportunities
for fire spread.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...
The weekend will feature the conclusion of dominating upper
level ridging over the region as it navigates off the eastern
seaboard. This will be to make room for a trough and its
attendant surface low pressure system that will be progressing
across the country. The center of the surface low will pivot up
into Canada, while developing a tail of showers and
thunderstorms along a strengthening cold front throughout the
course of the weekend. In the midst of its evolution, the
Central Appalachians will see an unseasonably warm and dry day
on Saturday as surface flow veers out of the south ahead of the
disturbance`s arrival. Many spots across the Tri-State area will
see afternoon temperatures rise into the low 80s while mountain
zones will plateau within the 60s and 70s.
Forecast trends have gravitated towards a slower onset arrival
time of showers, now bringing the initial precipitation shield
into our far western zones by late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Central guidance then carries a ribbon of higher
POPs throughout the day Sunday, denoting the likely timeframe
of the cold front`s passage. This weekend system has already
caught the attention of SPC and WPC, who have begun to highlight
various areas within the Tennessee and far western Ohio Valleys
regarding severe weather and flash flooding potential. Whether
that potential reaches as far east as our forecast area remains
questionable, especially given the late arrival timing of
activity on Saturday and the unfavorable conditions for
instability on Sunday as the front passes overhead.
The forecast then grows more uncertain as guidance spread shows
varying solutions for the start of next week. Some models hold
on to adverse weather far longer than others for Monday, while
there are some signs of restoration of dry weather for the end
of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday...
Areas of dense fog have formed early this morning in the midst
of a passing dry cold front. IFR or worse conditions at the time
of writing will gradually rise after sunrise, leaving sites to
contend with post-frontal stratus through the course of the
morning. Daytime mixing will aid in scattering out cloud
coverage this afternoon and evening as high pressure builds into
the area. Clearing skies and weakening surface flow may once
again river valley fog late in the TAF period, so began hinting
at this possibility at EKN for late tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Improving vsbys and ceilings may vary from
the forecast this morning into the early afternoon.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning for the
rest of this week.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ032-039-
     040-521>523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05/TRM
NEAR TERM...05/TRM
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion