Oakwood Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

913
FXUS61 KRLX 120616
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry for most today with fleeting cloud cover. A coastal low may
bring chances for showers across the mountains today and
tonight. Looking dry for much of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 128 AM Sunday...
Dry weather for most today after patchy morning fog lifts.
A churning coastal low offshore from the Carolinas and a
lingering trough overhead will provide some roving, transient,
broken cloud cover today and tonight. Although dry weather will
be the story for most, there are chances for showers today and
tonight across portions of Pocahontas/Randolph counties
associated with the offshore storm.
Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the
lowlands while the mountains will stay in the 50s and 60s. NNE
winds could be breezy at times due to a pressure gradient,
especially later this morning and into the afternoon. Breezes of
15 to 25 mph are possible across the northern
lowlands/mountains.
Better chances for fog expected tonight as winds across the
lowlands look more favorable. Cloud cover expected to linger
across the mountains with possible low stratus across our
northeastern most mountain counties. Lows will drop back to the
upper 40s and lower 50s across the lowlands, with 40s in the
mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 AM Sunday...
Upper-level ridging moves in Monday as surface high pressure
builds. The result will be dry weather Monday and Tuesday.
River/valley fog will be possible each morning under mostly
clear skies and subsidence courtesy of the high pressure.
Temperatures will be identical both Monday and Tuesday with
light to breezy northerly flow moderating the airmass. Highs
will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s in the lowlands, with
upper 50s to upper 60s expected in the mountains. Lows will drop
back into the 40s each night. A dry, reinforcing cold front
moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 156 AM Sunday...
Post-cold front conditions include a continuation of drier
weather, below normal temperatures, and potential for more
widespread frost/freeze. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday
will be in the 60s across the lowlands with the mountains
staying in the 50s and 60s.
Lows Wednesday and Thursday night will be much colder with 30s
and 40s on the board for multiple locations. A few locations
across the northeastern mountains may dip into the upper 20s.
Widespread frost looks to be a possibility across a decent chunk
of the lowlands and mountains, with hard freeze possible in the
higher elevations.
Models show a vigorous low that forms across the plains later
this week and subsequently drives across the Great Lakes this
coming weekend into next week. There is some variation in
solutions amongst the models with the GFS and Canadian models
keeping the low to our north, while the Euro deepens the trough
and brings it through our area. Kept west to east chances for
rain Sunday as a result of possible unsettled weather to close
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...
Mostly VFR conditions in place under passing mid to upper level
cloud cover. Expecting MVFR/IFR fog to form at CRW, HTS and PKB
this morning as winds remain calm. Cloud cover will likely
impede the density of fog formation. EKN will likely see impacts
from a combination of low stratus and some shallow valley fog
this morning.
Fog will lift and scatter between ~13-14z, then giving way to
VFR conditions. SCT and BKN mid to upper level cloud cover at
times today, with more coverage expected farther east in and
along the mountains.
Calm to light winds turn NE`rly today and could be breezy at
times. Gusts between 15 and 20 knots are possible this morning
and afternoon, especially at BKW, CKB and EKN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and density of fog and
low stratus may vary at CRW, EKN, HTS and PKB this morning. Fog
may be more dense and widespread than advertised if skies remain
clear and winds stay calm.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                        SUN 10/12/25
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
At least patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion