Oatman, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

613
FXUS65 KVEF 260525
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1025 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for southern
  Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona through
  the weekend.
* Moisture gradually scours out of the region through the work week,
  with a fall-like pattern bringing below-normal temperatures and
  breezy afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.
A closed area of low pressure off the southern California coast will
push inland through the day today. The dynamics associated with this
low, combined with PWATs 150 to 200 percent of normal (0.50 to 1.00
inches) and clearing skies allowing for CAPE values between 500 and
1000 J/kg will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms today
through the remainder of the work week into the weekend. Best
chances exist today across the southern Great Basin, including
northern Inyo, southern Nye, Lincoln, northern Mohave, and northern
Clark counties. With thunderstorms that form, expect locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. As the afternoon
progresses, northern Mohave is expected to be the main show, with
the HREF continuing to highlight the Arizona Strip with chances of
thunderstorm-related wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. To mirror this,
the Storm Prediction Center has northern Mohave, northeastern Clark,
and southeastern Lincoln counties under a "Marginal" threat for
severe weather this afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary
hazard of concern. Thunderstorms that have gone over rain gauges
this afternoon have not been as productive of rain-makers as
anticipated, though the threat of flash flooding cannot be ruled out
in areas with training storms, as storms today strongly favor
forming over the higher terrain before moving over valley locations.
The aforementioned closed low will bring enhanced forcing and
moisture to the region over the next few days as its center
traverses the Mojave Desert, which will bring a return of shower and
thunderstorm chances to the forecast area each day through Sunday.
The closed low will weaken into an open wave by early next week as
it pushes through Arizona and New Mexico. The resultant flow will be
southwesterly, which is typically a dry pattern for our forecast
area; however, remnants of what is now Hurricane Narda will get
swept up into the flow, returning chances of terrain-based
convection Monday and Tuesday afternoons. By midweek, a fall-like
trough will approach the Desert Southwest, bringing breezy and dry
conditions. Details of next week`s forecast will become more clear
as we move through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Thunderstorms will be the main concern again for this
period. Storms at or near the terminal look like a very good bet for
Friday, but the main question is whether they will occur in the
morning, the afternoon, or both. Best guess is that a complex of
storms will develop over Lake Mead after sunrise and drift westward
into the valley, potentially affecting the terminal as early as mid
morning. If storms affect most of the valley in the morning, then
the afternoon should be quieter, but if the morning storms miss the
valley, then afternoon storms would become more likely. Erratic
gusty winds, briefly heavy rain, and low ceilings will all be
possible with any storms. Away from storms, winds should be out of
the east at less than 10 knots.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Thunderstorms will be
the main concern again for Friday. The most likely scenario will be
storms developing over Mohave County around sunrise, then expanding
over Lake Mead and drifting west into most of Clark County by mid
morning. Scattered storms should develop over the higher terrain
areawide around midday and taper off after sunset. The main threats
with storms will be erratic gusty winds, heavy rain, and low
ceilings with terrain obscuration. Away from storms, winds should be
less than 20 knots.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Morgan
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion