Ocean Drive Beach, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

428
FXUS62 KILM 291745
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm Imelda will move north to northeastwards this
week well out to sea. Rainfall continues across the Carolinas
tonight through Tuesday with locally heavy rain at times.
Dangerous marine weather and ocean conditions will persist
through much of the week. Drier and cooler weather will develop
Wednesday through Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Intermittent light rain is expected to continue this afternoon.
Diurnal minimum of activity over the nearshore waters has
limited some of our precip over the last couple of hours which
fed on previously mature convection near the Gulf Stream. Inland
moisture advection and weak elevated instability over land
could produce some heavier rain this afternoon near the coast
with an isolated heavy shower inland. HREF probs continue to
indicate that rainfall total will remain under 2 inches through
sunrise on Tuesday.
HREF LPMM 6-hour QPF highlights rainfall potential along the
immediate coastline tonight and early Tuesday. Model QPF totals
around 1.00-1.75 inches with highlighted maximum values of up
to 2.25 inches will not be enough to cause meaningful flooding
concerns tonight. Event if slightly higher rain rates develop
and locally higher amounts result, dry antecedent conditions and
duration of rainfall should negate any concern. With dry air
building aloft later in the day, any existing showers will erode
through the afternoon on Tuesday. Clouds during daylight hours
will limit temperatures to the mid 70s, even with some pre-dusk
peeks of sunshine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Finally a return to dry weather this period as Imelda pushes
farther out to sea and strong sfc high pressure builds in from
the north. This will also set the stage for decreasing
cloudiness and continued N to NE breezy winds, highest near the
coast with gusts up to ~25 mph. Slight cooling trend expected
as well, with highs around 80 Wednesday dropping to the mid 70s
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not a whole lot of change this period compared to the short term
period, as sfc high pressure remains locked in place over the NE
and Mid Atlantic states. Could start to see a bit more of an
onshore flow direction late in the week as sfc winds veer, with
enough moisture to warrant only slight chance PoPs offshore and
right at the coast along a weak coastal trough this far out in
time, but by and large no heavy rain or big weather systems
anticipated. Seasonable temps continue...highs in the mid 70s to
lwr 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ample moisture will keep the area generally IFR. As many
stations have seen this morning, categories are likely to
oscillate as low clouds intermittently pass by. Low clouds
should thicken tonight with IFR shrouding the area through early
Tuesday morning. Rain should remain light, especially inland.
Periods of heavier rain or even a stray thunderstorm could
develop near the coast for a brief period. Cloud bases become
MVFR mid to late morning Tuesday.
Extended Outlook...Morning IFR/MVFR is possible through
Thursday due to low stratus. Breezy northeast winds are likely
for much of this week. Late this week and into the weekend,
easterly winds should return and bring a prolonged period of
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Marine conditions continue to deteriorate
late today and into Tuesday as associated swells from Imelda and
Humberto impact the region. Onshore NE flow around 10-15 knots
today will increase tonight into Tuesday as Imelda drifts
eastward and high pressure builds into the region. NC waters are
likely to see frequent gale-force gusts as early as Tuesday
morning which will continue into the Short Term. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for SC nearshore waters through
Wednesday.
Tuesday Night through Saturday...Hazardous marine conditions
will continue through the end of the week, due to both
lingering swell from the two aforementioned tropical systems,
and elevated winds and waves from sfc high pressure building in
from the north. Current headlines end at the end of the 4th
period, but expect to see the Gale Warning over NC coastal
waters transitioned over to a SCA while the SCA over SC coastal
waters is extended. Mainly dry weather this period with just a
20-30% of showers late in the week with a weak coastal trough.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
Georgetown, Horry, New Hanover, and Pender counties today, and
may expand to all beaches Tue thru Wed as Humberto and Imelda
swell intertwine along with large short-period wind waves due to
the strong NE winds from synoptic high press ridging across the
area from the north. The strong NE wind driven waves will
continue thru the end of the work week. The end result will be
the production of high surf Tuesday thru Thursday across E and
SE facing beaches.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Thursday
     night for NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Thursday
     night for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion