Oceanside, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

332
FXUS66 KPQR 050338
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
838 PM PDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.UPDATE...
No significant forecast updates. Convection stayed to our south
and east. Hazy/Smokey conditions have been evident on satellite
across eastern Lane and Linn Counties from the Emigrant Fire.
That will continue for several days under this high pressure
system. Coastal stratus is hugging land and Astoria and the
mouth of the Columbia River are seeing that stratus push
eastward. We have one more really warm day before we see
temperatures drop 5 to 10 degrees across the Williamette Valley
and Cascades. Convective opportunites return tomorrow, moving
northward into the area, especially in the areas from I-5 east
across the Cascades. Showers will start after 11 am with
lightning/thunder probabilities of 5-15% after 3 pm. Things will
decrease by 10 pm tomorrow evening. The central Cascades have
the best chance for lightning and showers, and unfortunately a
wetting rain isn`t anticipated. I wouldn`t be surprised if the
Mount Adams to Mount St Helens area saw some lightning as well.
TEF
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure inland will continue to drive hot
weather across much of the region through Friday, with
widespread Moderate HeatRisk inland. Low chances of afternoon
and evening Cascade thunderstorms continue today, becoming more
widespread Friday and Saturday. A shift in the pattern will
then bring cooler and wetter weather over the weekend and into
the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...
Now through Saturday Night...A compact and
weakening upper low located just offshore of Washington per
latest water vapor satellite imagery will continue to slowly
move northward while broad, upper ridging over eastern OR/WA and
the Great Basin continues to break down. The break down of the
ridge as well as the departing low, is able to provide
instability for higher elevations. As a result CAMs are showing
showers and thunderstorms developing along the Cascades through
this afternoon and into the evening. Currently, satellite is
showing convective clouds already developing along the crest of
the Cascades. Also, the Medford Radar does have a few cells
developing around the Douglass/Klamath County border and moving
northward. Mid-level winds remain out of the south/southeast,
so storms developing over the higher terrain could track toward
the foothills or Willamette Valley locales. Overall, storm
tracks are expected to follow a similar pattern when compared to
what was observed yesterday (Thursday afternoon 9/3/2025).
Minimum surface humidity looks to remain slightly above
critical values, generally 28-35% for the Cascades with inland
locations in the 40-50% range. So, fire weather concerns do not
rise to the level of Red Flag Warnings, however isolated dry
thunderstorms, particularly among receptive fuels in the
Cascades, do pose some risk for new fire starts.
Overnight cooling to lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s tonight
will see adequate relief from the heat and only Minor to
Moderate HeatRisk for most. The Heat Advisory for the Columbia
Gorge Hood River Valley therefore remains in effect only through
8 PM this evening.
Friday and Saturday, temperatures continue to trend slightly
cooler as the aforementioned ridge weakens while at the same
time, an upper level shortwave trough moves inland over the
OR/CA border and swings northward towards Washington. This
feature looks to provide more robust forcing for convection,
with CAMs suggesting higher coverage of potential thunderstorms
over our CWA. Models currently are showing a noticeable
increase in CAPE for Friday and Saturday afternoons with values
around 1500-1700 J/kg with the NAM being the very typical
outlier with 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE. Mean PWAT Values for both
Friday and Saturday are around 1-2" which would reduce the dry
lightning threat. However, it should be noted that for areas
east of the Cascade Crest, PoPs are relatively low (25% or
less). Therefore, while showers are in the forecast, the
likelihood of precipitation reaching the ground is minimal. /42
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...As the weekend comes to a
close and next week approaches, cooler and wetter weather are
in the forecast. A closed upper low will develop just offshore
over the northeastern Pacific through the weekend before moving
inland early next week. This will result in a rapid shift to
cooler and wetter conditions. Daytime highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s on Sunday will cool into the mid 60s to mid 70s by
Monday and through the middle of the upcoming week. Nearly all
long-range ensemble members now depict accumulating rainfall
across northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington. NBM
12-hour precipitation total probabilities are showing a 30-60%
probability of 0.25 inches of precipitation each 12 hour block
Monday through Wednesday, with the higher probabilities south of
Salem, OR. So, to summarize, cooler temperatures are expected
for the forecast area for the majority of next week. Also,
showers are also expected with areas likely to see at least 0.25
inches of precipitation each day. /42
&&
.AVIATION...Northwesterly flow at the surface continues across
the region, with southerly winds aloft. Expect VFR conditions to
continue through most of the period, with the exception being a
15-25% chance of MVFR CIGs for a few hours between 13-17Z Friday.
Along the coast, IFR/LIFR conditions will likely continue through
the TAF period (50-70% chances of LIFR/IFR). There is a 30-50%
chance for conditions to improve to MVFR after 20-21Z Friday.
Otherwise, expect mostly light and variable winds throughout the
airspace through the period, with some areas northwesterly to
westerly under 10 kt during the afternoon.
Expect smoke to produce widespread reductions down to 1-3 miles of
visibility in the Cascades of eastern Lane County through 00z
Saturday. Northeasterly flow in the Columbia River Basin on Friday
will bring smoke from eastern Washington into the Columbia River
Gorge and Cascades stretching from Mt St Helens southward through
Mt Jefferson. It is unclear if visibilities will drop below 6SM at
this time in that region, but suspect if they do, it won`t be by
much.
Additionally, there is approximately a 10% chance of
thunderstorms at or just east of many inland terminals between 21Z
Friday and 03Z Saturday, but confidence remains low enough at this
time to exclude from the TAFs.
PDX AND APPROACHES...Northwesterly flow at the surface continues across
the region, with southerly winds aloft. Expect mostly VFR
conditions through the period, with a 20% chance for MVFR CIGs
to develop for a few hours between 13-17Z Friday at KPDX and
KTTD. There is also a 10% chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm to impact the terminal between 21Z Friday and 03Z
Saturday.
~Hall
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the northeast Pacific will produce
northerly winds through Friday and areas of fog across at least
the inner waters through tonight. A switch to southerly winds
will occur late Friday night into Saturday with building southerly
winds Sunday into Monday. There is a 25% chance that southerly
wind gusts up to 25 kt will develop across the waters early next
week. Seas will generally hold in the 3-5 ft range into early next
week. There is a 25% chance of seas climbing above 5 ft during
the middle next week with those probabilities climbing to ~50% by
the end of next week.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210-251>253.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/portland
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
x.com/NWSPortland

NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion