Odd Fellows Cemetery, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

599
FXUS64 KTSA 300514
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures this week.
- Isolated sprinkles during the day Tuesday, though most
    precipitation should remain as virga.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A north/south oriented area of increased vorticity across the
Oklahoma Texas panhandles Monday evening is expected spread over
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. As this disturbance moves over the region, a deep layer of
drier air generally between 700-500mb will help to limit
rain/drizzle/sprinkles reaching the surface during the day Tuesday.
Thus, increasing the potential for virga over parts of the CWA,
especially over northwest Arkansas where the depth of the drier air
is greater. The main impact from the disturbance is expected to be
increasing cloud cover Monday night through the day Tuesday, which
could keep temperatures from reaching their full potential Tuesday
afternoon with highs in the low/mid 80s for the CWA.
The vort max is forecast to weaken Tuesday night with cloud cover
beginning to scatter out from west to east. Some high clouds could
remain over northeast Oklahoma as a trailing area of vorticity
approaches for Wednesday. Across the rest of the CWA Tuesday night,
slightly cooler conditions are anticipated with lows in the 50s to
mid 60s. These conditions could increase the fog potential again for
portions of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The trailing area of vorticity lifts through northeast Oklahoma
Wednesday before the mid level ridge of high pressure expands back
over the Southern Plains for the second half of the week.
Indications continue to highlight a weak area of low pressure
developing along the central Gulf Coast Thursday. In response, some
moisture could spread back into the eastern half of the CWA
Thursday, allowing for an isolated potential of a shower/storm
within the terrain of northwest Arkansas. For now will continue with
PoPs below mentionable criteria as the mid level ridge remains in
place over the region. With the ridge building back over the CWA,
temperatures Wednesday into the weekend are forecast to slowly warm
back into the mid/upper 80s Thursday/Friday. A few locations west of
Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma could approach 90 deg Thursday and
Friday afternoons.
For the weekend, a more defined area of low pressure is progged to
move from the West Coast Friday and lift through the
Central/Northern Plains Saturday/Sunday. At the same time, the
western half of the high pressure ridge remains oriented from
southwest to northeast over the Southern Plains. This should keep
the majority of the associated energy and frontal boundary to the
north of the CWA through the weekend. There is some uncertainty with
just how far southeast the frontal boundary can travel before
lifting back northeast early next week. If the boundary can get
close enough, a slight chance of showers/storms could exist Saturday
night into Sunday for parts of northeast Oklahoma. For now though,
will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria near the Kansas border.
The greater potential is for the boundary to remain to the north,
while southerly low level flow and the ongoing warm temperature
pattern remains for the CWA. This will continue to be updated
through the week with latest data.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
No significant changes were made from last aviation package. VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light
winds. The potential for some fog at KFYV and KROG continues to
exist around daybreak this morning. However, there may be enough
high level cloud cover to keep dense fog from developing.
Confidence remains too low to keep fog completely out of forecast
so a tempo MVFR fog mention was maintained to KFYV and KROG.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  61  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   85  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   85  59  88  62 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   84  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   82  56  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   84  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   84  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   85  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  61  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion