Old Cemetery New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

379
FXUS61 KPHI 141916
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the coast continues to move away into the North
Atlantic. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday,
with strong high pressure building in to close out the week. A
low pressure system may approach from the west late this weekend
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The coastal low which has impacted the Mid-Atlantic region over the
past several days has finally moved out to sea as high pressure is
centered over the Great Lakes. The region today is caught in between
systems as stubborn cloudiness persists. However, some breaks of sun
are starting to peak out where cloud cover will continue to dwindle
away towards sunset and more so tonight. Partly cloudy skies should
prevail overnight for most, although clouds may linger a bit longer
toward the coast. All in all, dry weather is anticipated. Winds will
also subside overnight to around 10-20 mph. Lows tonight fall into
the mid 40s to mid 50s.
For Wednesday, more in the way of sunshine is expected throughout
the course of the day aside for some high clouds. In the morning, a
cold front approaches from the north before crossing through the
area during the afternoon. Winds will once again become increasingly
gusty after the front passes where northwest winds may gust up to 30
mph in the afternoon. Despite the frontal passage, afternoon highs
will be noticeably warmer with highs topping out in the mid 60s to
low 70s for most, with 50s in the Poconos.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold advection will persist thru Wednesday night as high
pressure builds in from Canada, resulting in a steady
northwesterly wind. Skies should be mostly clear, and lows will
drop down into the upper 30s and low 40s.
With the high taking its time building into the area, we`ll
keep a northwesterly gradient, so the northwest winds will
remain steady and occasionally gusty on Thursday. Otherwise,
skies will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will only recover
to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
It still appears the gradient will remain tight enough Thursday
night, with the high center still off to the northwest, such
that we`ll mostly avoid a frost/freeze threat in locations where
the growing season continues. The steady breeze will remain,
though a bit weaker than Wednesday night. Lows Thursday night in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure finally builds overhead Friday, allowing winds to
relax more as the cold advection finally dwindles. Another
mostly sunny day should help to bring temps up a little, with
highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s in the Poconos.
The highs sinks to our south on Friday night, with warm
advection beginning aloft as the gradient turns westerly, though
remaining light. Some clouds may filter into the area as well.
Lows Friday night in the 40s.
A weak warm frontal passage on Saturday should bring a bit more
cloud cover, but also notably warmer temperatures. Highs
Saturday in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Warm advection on a southwesterly gradient will continue
Saturday night, but remaining dry with high pressure still in
control as it drifts off the Carolina coast. Lows Saturday night
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Warm advection peaks on Sunday just ahead of the next frontal
system approaching from the west. Clouds will be increasing,
along with the risk of showers, but it still should be the
warmest day of the forecast period. Highs Sunday in the low to
mid 70s, except 60s in the Poconos.
Aforementioned front moves through Sunday night, with
widespread showers and maybe even some thunderstorms and locally
heavy rain, depending on how the details set up. Lows Sunday
night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
High pressure starts building back in Monday, with decreasing
clouds and precip chances. Highs Monday in the 60s, except 50s
in the Poconos.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 00Z...MVFR ceilings are to prevail at most terminals through
22Z before lifting to VFR. MVFR ceilings will likely linger at
KMIV/KACY though. North winds around 8-13 kt with gusts up to 18-20
kt possible. Moderate-high confidence.
Tonight...Lingering MVFR ceilings at KMIV/KACY early, otherwise VFR
expected for most of the night. North-northwest winds around 5-10
kt. Moderate-high confidence.
Wednesday...VFR with SCT high clouds. Northwest winds around 10 kt
occasionally gusting up to 20+ kt. High confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday night thru Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail.
Sunday...Restrictions likely developing late as low clouds and
rain move in ahead of an approaching cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic coastal waters are
in effect through Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisories on the
Delaware Bay have been cancelled today, however a new Small
Craft Advisory has been issued beginning at 4 PM on Wednesday.
Northerly winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will continue
into tonight before diminishing after midnight. On Wednesday, north-
northwest winds around 10-15 kt in the morning will increase to 15-
20 kt in the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt following a frontal
passage. Seas of 6-10 feet. Fair weather outside of SCA conditions.
Outlook...
Small Craft Advisory conditions look likely at times Wednesday
night thru Thursday night due to winds and/or waves, at least
on the ocean waters. Delaware Bay will naturally have more sub-
advisory periods.
Sub-SCA conditions should become more widespread Friday and
continue thru Saturday.
Sunday will see increasing southerly winds and seas building
over 5 feet. Advisory conditions likely. Rain developing late
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Surge values are slowly subsiding as the coastal storm moves
away. However, one final high tide cycle is forecast to reach
widespread minor this afternoon. The Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect for the back bays of Ocean, Atlantic, Cape
May, and Sussex Counties, and Kent (DE) for Delaware Bay until
8 PM this evening. Thereafter, winds turning northwest should
allow water levels to subside even more. Some minor flooding
could linger in Ocean and Sussex Counties, but will see how
things trend today before making any additional advisory
extensions.
No tidal flooding is expected for our eastern shore counties
along Chesapeake Bay, or the tidal Delaware River.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-
     022>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...DeSilva
SHORT TERM...RCM/Staarmann
LONG TERM...RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/Staarmann
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion