295 FXUS61 KCLE 151950 AFDCLEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 350 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today and persist into Friday. A warm front will lift north across the area Friday night into Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. This system will extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure currently centered over the Michigan Upper Peninsula moves southeast to over the eastern part of our forecast area Thursday night. Clear skies and cooler conditions are expected to accompany this high. Light winds and clear skies will lead to favorable radiational cooling tonight and Thursday night, with frost expected tonight in the eastern part of forecast area. Temperatures should get even colder Thursday night with the high directly overhead, with more widespread frost and even freeze conditions for parts of the eastern half of the forecast area in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure departs to the east on Friday, with an upper-level ridge building in overhead. A weak mid-level theta-e gradient with a warm front may result in at least a chance for scattered rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning, especially in the eastern part of the forecast area in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Southerly flow will result in warming temperatures especially on Saturday when highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper-level trough builds in from the middle of the country on Saturday night to over the Great Lakes region on Sunday and Sunday night, intensifying as it does so. Rapid deepening of the associated surface low is forecast over the central Great Lakes on Sunday as synoptic-scale features come in a little stronger with the 12Z suite of model guidance today compared to the past few forecasts. This forecast did trend a bitter higher with PoPs, thunder, and wind, with areawide PoPs of 80-90% (and total QPF around an inch), a slight chance of thunderstorms added for Sunday afternoon, and wind gusts of around 30 mph. If a stronger system does materialize, stronger wind gusts in the 40-60 mph could be possible with very low potential of heavy rain/severe weather. Certainly a system worth keeping an eye on.
Wrap around moisture from the trowal may result in additional rain showers Sunday night with a bit of lake effect rain lingering on Monday in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected as a ridge builds across the area Monday through Tuesday. Another low pressure system may impact the region with more rain and possible wind on Tuesday and/or Wednesday, though there is a lot of variability in model guidance right now.
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.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A mid-level cloud deck is bringing 5-10,000 foot ceilings from CLE-CAK points west this afternoon, but will exit to the south- southwest this evening. There are scattered cumulus in the 2,000 to 3,000 foot range, with CLE and CAK potentially seeing transient broken MVFR ceilings from those clouds before 20z. Mainly clear conditions are then expected tonight into Thursday. Winds will remain out of the north-northwest at 8 to 12kt this afternoon, slackening slightly to 147.
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SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion