Omaha, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

273
FXUS64 KSHV 050622 CCA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
122 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
- Warmer conditions persist for today, but a cold front will
   bring cooler temperatures and thunderstorms this weekend
- A Marginal Risk for severe weather remains in place for
   portions of the area, mainly for late this evening and tonight
- Dry and comfortable weather is expected for much of next week
   with slow yet gradually warming temperatures
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
A shift in our upper-level weather pattern is underway today, as
we transition from a northwest flow aloft this morning to a more
west-to-east, or zonal, flow by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a deep,
stacked low-pressure system is moving across Ontario, Canada,
dragging a cold front southward from the Upper Midwest. This
front, currently stretching from southern Minnesota into southern
Nebraska, will make slow progress toward our region today and is
expected to reach the northern portions of our forecast area late
tonight. Prior to this, I think we will see one more day of
compressional warming ahead of the incoming front and have
increased afternoon highs slightly from what NBM was hinting at.
We overachieved yesterday and I see no reason why we won`t again
today. This frontal boundary will bring an increased chance of
thunderstorms to the area with some of them potentially strong to
severe. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center currently
has a Marginal Risk for far northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma,
southwest Arkansas and far northern Louisiana this evening and
early overnight. With favorable wind shear and steep lapse rates
in place, storms that develop could produce damaging wind gusts
and pockets of severe hail. While a few isolated storms may pop up
during the day across our northern zones, the stronger activity
is expected to arrive late this evening and persist into the
overnight hours.
As the cold front pushes farther south on Saturday, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will linger through much of the day
before the boundary clears by late evening. Behind this frontal
boundary, another upper-level disturbance will swing through on
Sunday, bringing renewed thunderstorm chances - mainly across the
western half of the region - where the Weather Prediction Center
currently highlights a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. By
Sunday afternoon, drier air will begin filtering in, setting the
stage for a stretch of quieter weather. Long-range guidance
suggest this dry trend could hold through much of next week,
giving us a welcome break from the unsettle pattern.
Temperatures will also take a noticeable dip behind the front and
today will be our last "hot" day for a little while. Cooler air
settles in Saturday, with highs ranging from the mid 70s across
our northern zones to the mid 80s across our southern zones and
similar readings expected on Sunday. Once the weekend rain
clears, it will be a pleasant time to tackle some outdoor chores,
like pulling those stubborn late-season weeds in your flowerbeds.
As we move into next week, temperatures will gradually climb back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s by midweek, but with high pressure
building in over the Midwest and northeasterly winds in place,
humidity levels should stay in check. That means that even as the
thermometer creeps upward, heat index values will remain close to
the actual ambient air temperature, making for more comfortable
afternoon. /33/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
For the ArkLaTex terminals, quiet night with calm or light and
variable winds. Partly cloudy skies expected for the day with a
round or two of thunderstorms arriving late, toward sunset and
through midnight as a cool front pushes into our region. SW winds
5-10G20KT early will slack gusts and back to S and SE then shift
to NE with the boundary. Nocturnal TS activity will follow south
of I-20 into early Saturday with a nice day for Sunday to round
out the weekend with still NE winds. /24/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  74  83  69 /   0  50  40  20
MLU  95  73  80  66 /   0  50  50  10
DEQ  91  66  77  62 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  94  68  78  65 /  10  60  40  10
ELD  94  66  77  61 /  10  60  50  10
TYR  94  71  80  69 /   0  50  40  20
GGG  96  71  81  68 /   0  40  40  20
LFK  96  74  87  71 /   0  10  40  20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion