Oneonta, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

580
FXUS64 KBMX 190538
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
The short-term will very much remain a "copy and paste" forecast,
with an almost identical weather scenario expected into the weekend.
Upper-level convergence will remain decreased enough to allow for
more diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Much like Thursday, these storms will be widely scattered, and you
should consider yourself lucky if you end up seeing any rainfall.
With that being said, you lucky few could see strong winds, and very
heavy rainfall rates with this activity given plenty of instability.
This activity should remain on the strong side, with no severe
storms anticipated.
The "copy and paste" forecast will extend to temperatures as well,
with afternoon highs continuing to range in the low to mid-90s, and
overnight lows only falling into the upper-60s.
/44/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
The short-term trend will carry over into the long-term as well, as
mostly similar weather days expected into the new workweek. Shower
and thunderstorm chances may become slightly more suppressed by
Sunday, but even then, some scattered convection is possible.
Thankfully, the pattern may begin to break down by the middle of the
new workweek, as upper-level troughing begins to deepen over the
midwest. Both the GFS and the Euro eventually have a low pressure
working into the region, along with this deepening trough, but the
biggest question mark here remains timing. The Euro brings the low
in by Friday, where the GFS keeps it out until next weekend. For the
time being, it looks like the most likely scenario is rain chances
increasing by Tuesday, and remaining in the forecast into the
weekend as this low gets its act together.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle.
With that said, there is a low chance for patchy MVFR fog early
this morning. Isolated convection is anticipated this afternoon.
Opted to leave any mention out of the TAFs at this time as
confidence is low in any direct impacts to our terminals. If the
CAMs become more aligned overnight, we could see a mention of
convection introduced with the 12Z update.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to range in the 30-40% range through the
weekend, with low end rain chances remaining in the forecast.
Thankfully, more organized rain chances are possible later in the
week, but the scope of that remains to be seen. Otherwise, look for
drought conditions to persist across the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  63  92  65 /  20  20  20  20
Anniston    91  65  91  66 /  20  20  20  20
Birmingham  93  68  93  70 /  20  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  95  68  95  68 /  20  20  20  20
Calera      94  67  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
Auburn      92  68  90  67 /  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  94  67  93  67 /  20  20  20  20
Troy        92  65  92  66 /  20  20  20  20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...95/Castillo

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion