Ophir, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

762
FXUS62 KRAH 111750
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a
northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into
the region will bring periods of clouds each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...
The morning stratus over eastern sections continues to slowly but
steadily lift this afternoon with patchy breaks in the cloud deck,
as the area of higher PW over E NC pushes southward and drier air
aloft mixes into and erodes the lower clouds, although with daytime
mixing, at least partial cloud cover should linger E of Hwy 1 into
the evening. With the expected downturn in PW and dry air aloft
noted on GOES layer WV imagery, clouds should be few near and after
midnight with a lower risk of drizzle or patchy light rain compared
to previous nights. However, the limited clouds late and a slow
uptick in surface dewpoints combined with very light winds and
stagnant near-surface air overnight should facilitate radiational
cooling overnight, favoring development of areas of fog and shallow
stratus. This should be most prevalent across the N and E CWA which
has seen some light precip over the last few days and where the
ground is a bit more damp, a scenario generally agreed upon by LAV
guidance, the HREF mean, and the experimental REFS. Fog may be
briefly dense in some spots in the N CWA, according to the HREF.
Lows should be slightly lower than last night, mostly in the upper
50s to lower 60s. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
High pressure will remain nearly stationary across the northeastern
United States with a ridge continuing to extend southwest into the
Carolinas. Similar to the last few days, low level flow will remain
out of the north, and cannot rule out mostly cloudy skies at the
beginning of the day, but unlike the last few days, clouds should
scatter out quickly during the morning allowing for a mostly sunny
afternoon. Highs will still be slightly below normal, but a couple
degrees warmer than today, ranging from the upper 70s to the mid
80s. The lack of cloud cover will allow more radiational cooling to
occur, and all locations should drop into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
* Dry weather with near-normal temperatures likely.
Long-range models are still in good agreement that Saturday and
Sunday will be mostly sunny with temperatures near normal, in the
lower 80s and the upper 50s. However, models begin to diverge by the
beginning of next week. One cluster of models still shows a cold
front passing over the Great Lakes during the weekend and moving
across North Carolina on Monday, with minimal moisture and no
precipitation. Another cluster of models is showing low pressure
spin up along the front that passed through several days ago which
has been stationary off the Atlantic shoreline. While it previously
looked like any precipitation with the offshore front would only
clip eastern North Carolina, the 00Z ECMWF is now a wet outlier
showing rain moving west across most of the state Tuesday and
especially Wednesday. Splitting the difference between these
possibilities, have brought a slight chance of showers/storms as far
west as US-1, primarily for Tuesday afternoon, although Sampson
County should keep a minimal chance for showers both Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures should still drop slightly Tuesday and
Wednesday, with most locations dropping back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s for highs and low temperatures remaining around 60 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Thursday...
Shallow fog at INT/GSO this morning has dissipated, leaving fair
skies at those sites, however sub-VFR cigs persist at this hour near
and E of Hwy 1, including at RDU/RWI/FAY, a result of a steady
influx of low level moisture moving NNE to SSW from E VA. Isolated
patches of light rain are also noted along and E of I-95. This
threat for patchy light rain will continue in the far E (RWI/FAY)
through the rest of this afternoon, with a slow rise in cigs at
RDU/RWI/FAY, such that VFR cigs are expected at these sites by about
19z-21z. VFR conditions will hold areawide through the midnight
hour, then areas of sub-VFR stratus and patchy fog are expected to
form across the N overnight, most likely impacting RWI/RDU with
lower confidence at GSO/INT/FAY. RDU/RWI should trend to at least
MVFR by 07z-09z, with a period of IFR conditions possible just
before and around sunrise, while the remaining TAF sites may only
briefly drop to MVFR. Cigs in the northeast CWA should then slowly
lift and break up through the end of the TAF valid period. Overall
confidence is not high, however, since the low levels will be
gradually drying out, making low clouds and fog less likely. Surface
winds will be mostly from the NE or N under 8 kts.
Looking beyond 18z Friday, once any lingering sub-VFR stratus in the
northeast CWA dissipates in the early afternoon, central NC
terminals should be mostly VFR into early next week. Ridges of high
pressure extending in from the north will dominate at the surface,
although a few more clouds and gusty winds are possible late Fri
with passage of an upper level trough into the area. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion