Orange Lake Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

353
FXUS62 KJAX 100558
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
158 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Highest Water Levels of the Fall Season Expected Today and
  through the Weekend. Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate Tidal
  Flooding from this Morning - Sat Night. Wind Advisories for the
  Coastal Counties through Early Sunday Morning. Gale Warning for
  Atlantic Waters through Saturday Night. Destructive Beach
  Erosion at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide
- Heavy Downpours and Isolated Thunderstorms along the I-95
  Corridor. Localized Flooding Possible at Coastal Locations
  through Tonight. Widespread 2-3 Totals for Coastal Northeast FL
  with Locally Higher Amounts Possible
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
An area of low pressure will develop along a frontal boundary off
the central east coast of FL. With the area of low pressure to
the south and high pressure to our north, locally a tight pressure
gradient will bring elevated winds over the local waters and
coastal locations of SE GA and NE FL, with winds from 25 to 35 mph
and gusts from 40 to 45 mph possible along the coast.
Northeasterly onshore flow will continue to bring coastal showers
and storms through Tonight. There could be periods of heavy
downpours as the showers and storms make their way towards the
I-95 corridor in NE FL. With lingering high tides and the strong
onshore flow, we will likely continue to see moderate coastal
flooding along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River
Basin. By the evening hours, the area of low pressure will begin
to shift towards the north-northeast along the local waters
towards the Carolinas as high pressure to the north shifts east
towards the Atlantic, with elevated winds and coastal hazards
continuing into the weekend.
Temperature highs will be in the 70s area-wide as cloud cover and
the advection of cooler air into the region will keep most
locations from reaching into the 80s, aside from a few locations
along north central FL. Lows will be in the 60s area-wide with a
gradient of lower temperatures in SE GA to higher temperatures in
north central FL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
True nor`easter developing by Saturday morning, compounding the
coastal impacts through Saturday. Latest guidance tightens gradients
and increases winds across the coastal areas Saturday as a surface
low develops off the central FL coast beneath an upper cutoff during
the morning and quickly deepens as it moves northward toward the
Carolinas. This acceleration to the winds, with gusts up to 45 mph,
along the coast where a Wind Advisory is in effect through early
Sunday morning.
Initially convergent banding withing the northeasterly flow will
direct showers into the coast and toward Hwy 301 through Saturday
morning. As the aforementioned surface low shifts northward, a
trailing cold front will sweep through turning winds northerly then
northwesterly through Sunday.
By Sunday high pressure to the west will weaken and gradients will
begin to relax. Despite weakening winds and a slight shift to an
offshore flow, rough waters at area beaches are likely to linger
along with the threat of rip currents through Sunday. Similarly,
northerly winds will likely keep "trapped" tidal water within the St
Johns River for a few additional cycles, especially at locations
from downtown Jacksonville southward (more on this in the HYDRO
section below). This may require an extension to the headlines
through Sunday, particularly the coastal flood and surf-related
hazards.
Cloud cover and breezy winds inland (windy at the coast) will keep
temperatures below 80 degrees areawide. Temperatures will begin to
trend down Sunday behind the front with skies clearing and winds
trending light. This will set up a night with overnight lows Sunday
dipping into the mid/upper 50s from the Suwannee Valley northward
into inland southeaster GA while the rest of the area reads low
temps in the low 60s and mid 60s at the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Broad upper ridging building from the west out of the Gulf will act
as a shield from additional troughs from reaching our area through
next week. Surface ridging will build from the northwest during the
midweek portion of the forecast, keeping winds northeasterly but
much lighter than the ongoing Nor`easter event. That northeast winds
should last long with high pressure gradually settling over the area
to end the week. Overall a much more benign period of weather is
expected with no significant tropical developments expected during
this period. Seasonal temperatures reading near typical climo for
mid October is likely with the forecasted pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Strong northeast winds through the TAF period. MVFR vsby/cig will
persist as well with occasional IFR cig/vsby. Kept TEMPO and
PROB30 IFR in convection. IFR cigs develop by morning, and improve
for GNV by the aftn, with on and off moderate to possibly heavy
showers and potential t-storms affecting other TAF sites. Again
don`t think LLWS criteria met at this time, but low level
turbulence is highly probable given the gustiness of the winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Elevated northeast winds will continue over the local waters. Showers
and embedded storms will increase in coverage through Today. A
Gale Warning remains be in effect through Saturday night as
northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt will be
possible. An area of low pressure along the Gulf Stream waters
adjacent to our region will gradually strengthen as it moves
northward towards the Carolinas this weekend. Strong north-
northeasterly winds and very rough surf will create dangerous
conditions throughout our local waters through Today and into
early Sunday. Northerly winds will gradually subside late this
weekend into early next week, with elevated seas also likely slow
to subside across our local waters.
Rip current: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend as
surf/breakers build into the 7-10 ft range Today and into the
weekend. Severe beach erosion is expected during times of high
tide through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
The Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in place into the early
morning hours. With the late morning high tide cycle Today, a
Coastal Flood Warning will replace the Coastal Flood Advisory and
be in effect through Saturday Night as onshore winds remain
elevated. We will elevate if the Coastal Flood Warning will be
extended based off of wind observations and the evolution of the
area of low pressure as it tracks over the offshore waters this
weekend.
We expect Moderate Coastal/Tidal flooding values of close to 3 ft
MHHW for NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations (highest since
Hurricane Nicole in November 2022) and into the 2.0 to 2.5 ft MHHW
range on the St. Johns River Basin (highest since Hurricane
Milton from last October). The strong onshore flow will continue
to bring in coastal showers through Today, with any heavy rainfall
that falls into the St. Johns River Basin during this event
likely will help to keep lingering tidal flooding well into next
week for the St. Johns River Basin. The Atlantic beachfront
locations should fall back closer to astronomical tidal levels by
early next week as the wind flow becomes more offshore.
Strong onshore winds, elevated tide levels, and pounding surf,
featuring breakers of 7-9 feet along the northeast FL beaches,
will bring the potential for destructive beach erosion all along
the Atlantic coast beginning Today and through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  60  76  59 /  40  30  10  10
SSI  75  65  74  63 /  70  70  30  20
JAX  75  65  77  62 /  80  70  40  20
SGJ  78  68  77  64 /  80  70  50  20
GNV  77  64  78  60 /  50  40  20  10
OCF  78  67  77  62 /  40  30  20  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ038-
     124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-138-233-
     325-333-433-533-633.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ154-
     166.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion