Orchard Mines, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

084
FXUS63 KILX 012310
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
610 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 degrees
  will continue through Monday before an approaching cold front
  brings a return to more seasonable readings in the 70s by the
  middle of next week.
- An elevated wildfire risk will develop this weekend as
  southwesterly winds increase.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec
southwestward to Texas will continue to dominate the weather
across the Midwest over the next 24 hours. While E/SE boundary
layer winds will decrease to around 5mph after sunset, bands of
high clouds will tend to prevent overnight lows from dropping
quite as low has they have recently...with readings ranging from
the middle 50s near the Indiana border where skies will be
clearest to around 60 degrees in the Illinois River Valley.
NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggest these high clouds will stick
around into Thursday, which will likely keep afternoon highs down
a couple of degrees. Even with the partial high cloud cover, am
still expecting well above normal highs in the middle 80s.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As low pressure takes shape over the central Rockies then lifts
northeastward into the Dakotas over the weekend, the resulting
tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southwesterly
winds. Based on the latest projections, it appears the strongest
winds will develop from Kansas northeastward into Minnesota and
Wisconsin: however, think wind gusts of 20-25mph will be likely as
far east as the I-57 corridor by Sunday afternoon. Given the
antecedent drought conditions, low fuel moisture, and increasing
winds...concern is growing for the potential for wildfires over
the weekend. While winds and minimum RH values likely will not
meet Red Flag criteria, burning is highly discouraged both
Saturday and Sunday.
By early next week, models are in good agreement that a frontal
boundary will sink southward into central Illinois. Deep-layer
moisture will initially be lacking, so am not anticipating much in
the way of rainfall with the approaching boundary. Will carry low
chance PoPs (20-30%) for showers north of the I-72 corridor late
Monday night, then across the board on Tuesday. The best shot at
seeing appreciable rainfall will likely materialize along/south of
I-70 by Tuesday afternoon and evening as moisture becomes a bit
more abundant before the front drops southward into the Ohio River
Valley. Once the boundary passes and winds veer to NW, temps will
drop back to near normal for this time of year in the lower to
middle 70s by next Wednesday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure will keep the weather uneventful the next 24 hours.
Light east winds will veer to the southeast Thursday, remaining
below 10 kts.
NMA
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion