Orient, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

669
FXUS61 KCAR 062352
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
752 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front finishes moving offshore tonight, stalling out over
the Gulf of Maine, with waves of low pressure riding along it
through Sunday. High pressure then builds over the area through
Monday night, then slowly exits to the east-northeast through
Wednesday. A couple of weak cold fronts then cross the area
Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
740pm Update...
Thunderstorm activity has mostly died off, but still a fair
amount of rain falling, which will taper off from west to east
in the next few hours. Tweaked end times of rain to account for
current trends.
Previous Discussion...
Cold front and/or dewpoint front has dropped to between Presque
Isle and Houlton. This is noticeable on visible satellite
imagery and regional 88Ds. Showers are occurring north of the
front with storms marking the frontal boundary itself. Low
stratus has moved onto the Downeast coast with clearing over
interior Downeast. With marine layer over this area for most of
the morning, not sure how much this region can destabilize
before the sun sets.
SPC Mesoanalysis page showing a narrow ribbon of 500-1000 J/kg
of CAPE in the Bangor area and along the Rte 9 corridor into
interior Downeast. Latest guidance is showing main bulk of
strong-severe storms won/t move in until after 22z this evening.
It appears to be keying in on the storm complex moving into the
Berkshires at this time. Whether this complex can maintain
itself or become more elevated with time is the main question.
Thinking is that storms will become elevated as they head east
late this afternoon and evening, with the damaging wind threat
diminishing. Cannot rule out locally heavy rainfall with any
storms that can move through the area but event that remains a
mystery, given the ongoing drought.
Cold front stalls offshore late this evening as another wave
rides up along it twd daybreak. This wave should bring another
area of rainfall to Downeast tomorrow morning into the
afternoon with a beneficial rainfall. All told amounts between
0.50-0.0 inches are expected over interior Downeast.
Low pressure will drive boundary to our south with clear skies
rapidly moving in Sunday evening into Monday morning. H8 temps
drop into the single digits and will bring Sunday night low into
the low-mid 40s acrs the north and around 50 along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A northern stream trough crosses the area on Monday. The low
levels should be rather dry, so do not expect any precipitation.
There could be some mid and high clouds as it passes. Highs on
Monday should be around 5 degrees below normal.
The region is under SW flow aloft Monday night and Tuesday. With
no shortwaves of note passing over the area in the flow, it
should be dry with minimal cloud cover. With mainly clear sky
conditions Monday night and winds light to calm, should see
strong radiational cooling conditions. Undercut NBM guidance by
blending in NBM25th and NBM10th percentile. Have areas of frost
and patchy fog (where there is no frost) Monday night,
especially in deeper valleys. If the forecast does not change,
likely will be issuing the first frost advisory of
meteorological fall across at least portions of the North. Lows
Monday night should be around 10 degrees below normal and highs
on Tuesday a few degrees below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region remains under SW flow aloft Tuesday night and
Wednesday and absent any embedded shortwaves it should be dry.
A series of northern stream shortwaves pass Wednesday night and
Thursday. With minimal moisture to work with, could see some
isolated showers across portions of the North, otherwise it
should be dry.
Northern stream troughing builds in Thursday night-Friday, then
exits to the east Friday night. Dry low to mid levels should
preclude any precipitation.
Northern stream shortwave ridging should transit the area
Saturday, with associated subsidence keeping things dry.
Temperatures should be below normal Tuesday night, near normal
Wednesday and Wednesday night, then below normal Thursday-
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Tonight...Challenging, low confidence TAFs tonight.
For northern TAFs such as FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL, most of the MVFR/IFR
the past couple hours has been from visibility from moderate to
heavy rain and not from ceilings. Expect this rain to taper off
by about 3z, with improving visibilities after 3z to likely
VFR. Question is whether low ceilings develop. Tentatively
leaving FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL VFR after 3z as think enough dry air is
working in to keep low ceilings away, but give MVFR/IFR ceilings
about a 25 percent chance of developing sometime tonight.
For BGR/BHB, rain will taper off around 1-2z, and anticipate
ceilings/visibility to improve to VFR as drier air works in from
the northwest. However, exact timing of this is a bit in
question, and could occur anywhere from 2-6z.
Winds tonight generally less than 10 kts from the W/NW. BHB
still southerly, but will become W/NW this evening.
Sunday...Rain redeveloping for BHB/BGR around 12z with likely
MVFR and possible IFR during the day. HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE most
likely staying VFR and dry. Can`t rule out MVFR conditions and
rain making it as far north as HUL, but put this around 40
percent. Winds variable and less than 10 kts.
Sunday Night...Rain at BHB/BGR tapers off sometime between
20-0z with conditions improving to VFR as the rain ends. Mainly
VFR through the night with W wind 5 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Monday-Monday evening...VFR. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible
Monday afternoon.
Late Monday night-Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower possible in
patchy fog near river valleys, otherwise VFR.
Tuesday afternoon-Thursday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-20KT possible
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas will range from 3-5 feet until later this
evening when they begin to diminish. Winds will gust toward
25kts before dropping after sunset. Winds and seas will remain
below small craft through Sunday night.
SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Monday-
Thursday should limit sustained winds to 10 kt or less and seas
to 3 ft or less.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster/Foisy
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Buster/Foisy/Maloit
Marine...Buster/Foisy/Maloit

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion