Orleans, California Weather Forecast Discussion

409
FXUS66 KEKA 050724
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1224 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer weather is forecast for the next
several days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West
Coast. The next chance for rain may be late next week as another
trough approaches the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level shortwave is currently moving south along the Pacific
Northwest coast and will move over our region Sunday. This shortwave
will bring some high clouds to the region but otherwise the main
impact of its passage will be to enhance offshore flow and drying at
the surface. Coastal clouds tonight will quickly be scoured out
leaving what should be clear conditions Sunday night through
Tuesday. Warming aloft as ridging builds behind the shortwave
passage and offshore flow will result in above normal high
temperatures for much of the region Monday through Tuesday. Some
coastal areas could see highs reaching into the lower 70s, if not a
little warmer in some locations. Interior areas will reach into the
80s and could push 90 degrees in a few of the typically hotter
locations. None of these temperatures are anywhere close to
record highs for the time of year but it will still feel very warm
after the recently cool period.
The next weather challenge is the potential for an upper low to cut-
off from the flow off the Northwest California coast. Guidance
continues to remain split with a little more than 60% of the
ensembles favoring this solution while a little less than 40%
indicate the low may move straight down the coast instead of
retrograding toward the west or will not become a close low at all
and remain a trough. Regardless, there will be a potential for rain
starting late in the week and into the weekend with a slight
potential for thunderstorms, especially if the colder closed-off low
solutions win out and the upper low eventually moves over the
region. /RPA
&&
.AVIATION...
Stratus has formed around Humboldt Bay and into the surrounding
river valleys. Ceilings at ACV and FOT are LIFR and some
restricted visibilities will be possible. Offshore wind aloft is
helping to keep other areas clear, and could help clear areas
around Humboldt Bay overnight. Any remaining clouds are likely to
clear shortly after sunrise. Breezy northerly winds are likely
again in the afternoon, especially at CEC, but gusts will be
lighter than Saturday, peaking around 20 kts. Interior areas,
including UKI, are likely to remain VFR for the next 24 hours. JB
&&
.MARINE...
Northerly winds will continue to strengthen into Sunday. Gale
conditions are ongoing in the southern waters around and south of
Cape Mendocino. Gale conditions will spread into the northern
outer waters starting early this morning. Steep, wind driven seas
of 7- 9 ft will remain in the waters into Monday. Propagation of
steep seas of 7 ft is likely to continue into the northern inner
zone 450 periodically through tonight. A weak surface low will
begin to develop over the coastal waters Monday as dry offshore
winds form inland. This will clear out the marine layer clouds and
greatly ease winds down to a light breeze. These conditions will
continue through most of Tuesday with light to gentle breezes
expected from strengthening northerly winds. The northerly winds
are then forecast to strengthen Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. JJW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
     PZZ450-455.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ470.
Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470.
Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion