Orleans, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

587
FXUS63 KFGF 060211
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
911 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy frost is possible tonight in northwest Minnesota. Lows
  in northwest Minnesota could fall into the low to mid 30s.
- Widespread frost is possible Saturday night into Sunday
  morning. Lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s
  across much of the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Winds are lessening as forecast, with all observations sites now
10 mph or less. While lessening winds will promote potential for
frost, lingering cloud cover tonight into Saturday morning may
complicate frost potential. There is a subtle shortwave trough
in central MB that is diving southward, which may bring stratus
into northwest MN during the predawn hours of Saturday. This may
shift relatively favored area for frost to shift into west-
central MN opposed to northwest MN. Will still maintain frost
advisory in northwest MN, but potential may be shifting
southward some.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough continues to move to the southeast this evening
with continued northwest flow expected across the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. Scattered cumulus has formed this afternoon, and
will begin to diminish this evening along with the surface
temperatures. Cooler than average temperatures prevail through the
weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
Warmer temperatures return next week as H5 flow becomes zonal and
weak ridging develops across the central CONUS. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms return to the forecast for parts of the area Monday
afternoon and evening, with additional rain chances on Thursday.
...Frost Possible Tonight and Saturday Night...
Temperatures fall into the middle 30s tonight across portions of
northwest Minnesota, with a few cooler spots potentially falling
into the low 30s. This will be dependent upon cloud cover as daytime
cumulus and a larger area of stratus prevail across the area this
afternoon. As temps cool this evening, lapse rates will decrease and
reduce the coverage of the cumulus, thus we should see clearing
across many areas. Radiational conditions should support at least
patchy frost formation in northwest Minnesota, where 850mb temps
hover around 0C. For Saturday night into Sunday morning,
temperatures at the 850mb level will be slightly warmer; however,
radiational cooling is slightly better supported. Low temperatures
should be able to fall into the upper 30s in most parts of eastern
North Dakota, west central Minnesota, and northwest Minnesota. Lower
to middle 30s are possible where radiational cooling is most
efficient and cloud cover is minimal. As such, widespread frost is
possible Saturday night into Sunday morning across much of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period.
Overnight, winds will be less than 10kt, with VFR broken stratus
ceiling still occurring across the area. By mid morning,
secondary cloud deck is forecast to develop in the form of
diurnally driven fair weather cumulus. This fair weather cumulus
may start around 25kft before lifting to around 40kft after 18Z
Saturday. There may be some scattered rain showers in northwest
Minnesota around this time as well. Winds will reinvigorate
after 17Z to around 15kt gusting to 20kt out of the north-
northwest.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion