Orleans Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

829
FXUS63 KGID 072142
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
442 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- While it has legitimately felt more like "true fall weather"
  these last few days (finally!), temperatures start trending
  back up by Thursday with above-average readings (highs
  70s/80s) expected to prevail into at least the middle of next
  week. Going hand in hand, almost zero concern for
  frost/freeze.
- Precipitation-wise: Although some very spotty sprinkles/light
  showers probably cannot be completely ruled out as early as
  late Wed night in our eastern counties, officially our
  forecast remains dry (void of mentionable rain chances) until
  essentially Sun night-Monday (and then again Tuesday)...but
  even these chances look pretty "iffy".
- In terms of true weather concerns and/or hazardous weather,
  there is certainly nothing "pressing". In the very short term,
  some patchy fog appears possible mainly in our far southeast
  counties Wed AM. There will also be a return of some breezy
  days, but nothing that looks OVERLY-windy and nothing that
  looks overly-concerning for fire weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
-- 7 DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, CHANGES, UNCERTAINTIES:
- Admittedly, this is kind of a "one and done" 7-day forecast
  shift for this particular forecaster, so don`t have a great
  feel for recent model trends. That being said, a comparison of
  this latest 7-day forecast issuance to our previous one
  reveals only minimal/minor changes at most.
- In the longer term part of the 7-day, by far our biggest
  uncertainties (not surprisingly) reside out in the Day 6-7
  time range (Mon-Tues), as that is when the ECMWF/GFS models
  start to diverge most noticeably. In short, the GFS is much
  more aggressive with large-scale troughing over the north
  central/western U.S. having more of an influence here in the
  Central Plains, and thus suggests a noticeably cooler and
  wetter regime than the typically-preferred ECMWF (which is
  warmer and overall-drier). For now, our official forecast
  leans more toward the warmer/drier side of things, but of
  course uncertainty is plenty high at that range.
- Briefly peeking beyond our official 7-day forecast, the latest
  Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 day outlook continues to
  lean at least slightly toward a warmer-than-normal pattern,
  although a look at the latest ECMWF ensemble data at least
  suggests a modest cool-down by TWO WEEKENDS from now (Oct 18th
  onward), with highs prevailing more in the 60s versus 70s
  (and overnight lows more 40s versus 50s).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (heavily focused on the
 first few days):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
Although probably a bit cool for some, this forecaster feels
that today is about as "good as it gets" by early-October
standards! In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water
vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm
broad/low-amplitude ridging extended out into the Central Plains
from the western U.S., while a broad trough has departed
eastward into the eastern states. At the surface, a roughly 1025
millibar high pressure ridge is currently parked right through
the heart of our area, keeping winds light (ranging from calm up
to spotty 10 MPH). As of this writing, the majority of our
forecast area (CWA) is sunny/mostly sunny, but counties mainly
north of I-80 are more-so partly cloudy due to more widespread,
shallow "fair weather" stratocumulus. High temps are on track to
be quite uniform...most areas 64-68.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Once any of the aforementioned "fair weather" clouds fade away
with sunset, the vast majority of our CWA is looking at a
clear/mostly clear and seasonably-cool night. However, a fairly
solid deck of mid-level clouds is currently lurking not far to
our southwest over western KS, and the northern/northeast edges
of this cloud mass will eventually invade mainly our far
southwestern CWA (mainly Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) by sunrise
Wednesday. At the surface, the high pressure axis will depart
eastward overnight, allowing light easterly/southeasterly
breezes to prevail over our CWA (mainly at-or-below 5 MPH).
Given the light winds/mainly clear skies, this should be a
fairly ideal radiational cooling setup, and low temps were
nudged down a few degrees from previous forecast. More
specifically, have most of the CWA aimed 40-45, but far
northern/typically-colder spots (such as Ord) are ripe to dip
into the upper 30s. Like last night, this could be a fairly
"close call" for frost potential, but should fall a few degrees
short. One one final note, while not likely to be a major
concern due to a fairly dry boundary layer, some of the higher-
res visibility progs (HRRR/RAP) are hinting at at least
spotty/shallow fog potential mainly in our far southeast, so
have introduced a generic mention of "patchy fog" centered 5-9
AM for areas mainly southeast of a Clay Center-Osborne line.
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
Although temperatures will be fairly similar to today, it will
eventually be much cloudier and breezier. Cloud-wise, the
aforementioned deck of mid-level clouds (likely based around 5K
ft.) that will start the day in our southwest fringes should
make a gradual-but-steady march east-northeastward as the day
wears on, gradually overtaking more and more of our CWA with
time. Thus, our west-southwest half will average partly-mostly
cloudy for the day as a whole, while our east-northeast half
will hold onto sun the longest before clouds show more of their
hand later in the afternoon. Probably cannot totally rule out
the potential for a few rogue sprinkles either (too unlikely for
a formal forecast inclusion). Meanwhile at the surface, the
pressure gradient tightens a bit as high pressure continues to
depart farther east, with late-morning into afternoon sustained
speeds mainly 10-17 MPH/gusts 15-30 MPH out of the south-
southeast (weakest in our southeast counties/strongest in our
northwest CWA). Temperatures are a bit tricky, but the general
expectation is for our southern/western counties to be coolest
due to the earlier arrival of clouds, while northern/eastern
counties are warmest due to sunshine prevailing longer. That
being said, we`re not talking a huge gradient either...ranging
from low 60s west-southwest to mid-upper 60s north/east.
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Compared to tonight, the biggest difference will be
temperatures, which should easily hold up 10+ degrees warmer
(most areas bottoming out 50-54). This will be due to a
combination of steady south-southeast breezes (10-15 MPH) and
the lingering mid-level cloud deck (although these clouds should
gradually vacate from west-to-east as the night wears on. While
the chances are still too low/uncertain for formal forecast
inclusion, some models hint at a non-zero chance for some spotty
light showers to develop very late Wed night-early Thurs AM
within/near the east-southeast fringes of our CWA due to meager
moisture advection along the eastern fringes of a low-level
jet...so this will need monitored in later forecasts.
- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
The main story here will be our next warm-up to legitimately
above normal/average temps (especially considering that average
temps keep slipping by the day this time of year). Assuming any
light precip avoids our far east-southeast counties Thursday AM,
this should be a dry 24 hours, with any overnight showers/weak
storms favored to our east within IA/eastern KS. The day will
again be a bit breezy (sustained 10-15+ MPH/gusts 20+ MPH out of
the south). Assuming cloud cover is not more than expected,
afternoon high temps should jump into the mid-upper 70s, with
overnight lows mainly 50s. For Friday, temperatures are actually
a little uncertain, as although our official forecast calls for
a continued warm-up with highs a few degrees either side of 80
degrees, some of the very-latest data hints that a weak cold
front could keep winds more northerly-to-easterly and thus keep
highs a bit more down in the 70s.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY (the weekend):
In short, this currently appears to be a MOSTLY dry and
seasonably-warm/breezy weekend. That being said, both the
ECMWF/GFS suggest that we will receive "glancing blows" of
disturbances tracking from the western into north central U.S.,
perhaps inducing at least spotty shower/thunderstorm potential.
High temps aimed mainly near-80 on Saturday and low-mid 80s
Sunday.
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
As mentioned at the top, uncertainty really grows by this time
with the GFS much more aggressive than the ECMWF in pushing a
large-scale trough into the Plains (as opposed to hanging the
main energy back west). Although not nearly as cool as the GFS
would suggest, our official forecast does at least suggest a
slight cool-down with highs more solidly back down into the 70s.
Our official forecast also includes various, slight (20%)
chances for potential showers, but far from anything confident
enough to latch onto this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
This is a high confidence VFR forecast with regard to
ceiling/visibility and precipitation-free weather, with the ONLY
low-probabilty "catch" to VFR perhaps being some shallow fog
development early Wed AM that could try reducing visibility on a
localized basis (currently deemed too low of possibility for TAF
inclusion). Winds will be inconsequential through much of the
period...mainly at-or-below 6KT through at least 13Z...before
steadily/gradually increasing by late Wed morning-early afternoon
with sustained southerly speeds reaching 12-14KT/gusts around
20KT.
As for clouds, although the vast majority of the period will
likely feature little-if-any, this afternoon could eventually
see development of a FEW/SCT deck of "fair weather
stratocumulus" based around 5K ft. (this should fade away with
nightfall). Then very late in the period (mainly after 16Z),
especially KEAR could see the invasion of a BKN-OVC stratus deck
based around 5K ft., with KGRI less likely to see these clouds
arrive from the southwest until slightly beyond this TAF valid
period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion