Ormsby, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

119
FXUS61 KCTP 021802
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
202 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Temperatures climb to well above normal Fri and last into
  next week
* Our extended dry pattern continues with no rainfall and low
  humidity expected through Monday night
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Huge high pressure remains in control for the near term. High
clouds will drift across every so often. Good radiational
cooling should allow mins tonight to be nearly normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Main features to the forecast are dry aftn dewpoints/low
humidity, but just a little higher Fri vs Thu, and temps well
above normal. Even though the dewpoints rise, the temps will
almost keep pace with them. Maxes on Fri look to be sky- higher
vs normals in the NW (10-15F above) and modestly higher in the
SE (0-5F above).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly sunny and very warm days followed by comfortable sleeping
nights over the weekend into early next week. Highs will climb
well above the historical average for early October (+10-15F)
reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. The dry air in place will keep
min temps closer to/but still above climo. No rainfall is
expected Saturday through Monday.
Model and ensemble mean consensus finally bring some rainfall
back into the picture by the middle of next week, with a cold
frontal passage projected around next Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM/WPC
blended QPF amounts within that 24 to 48 hr period are in the
0.10 to 0.75" range from SE to NW - so certainly not a drought
buster we will take what we can get.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Just tweaked MDT/LNS for near term sky cover. Still VFR, but cu
around - despite dewpoints in the 40s. Air at 8H is cooler in
the SE than elsewhere across the state leading to better
instability and some cu based around FL040.
Prev...
High clouds are all there will be to see through over the next
few days. Thanks, high pressure. Direction of wind forecast will
be challenging since it will be light, but the wind should be a
little more southerly Fri than Thurs. They will go light/calm
tonight and again for Fri night. Despite the cooling expect
mainly clear skies to prevail tonight. The potential for fog is
low (less than 20%), given the dry airmass and temps in the m40s
N. Without much/any fog last night, and temps staying milder,
the fog potential is low, especially at Central PA airfields.
The dry high pressure will linger over the eastern half of the
CONUS through the weekend, providing excellent flying
conditions.
Outlook...
Fri-Mon: VFR other than AM fog poss - not likely - N valleys.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Gartner
AVIATION...Bowen

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion