Osnabrock, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS63 KFGF 050420
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1120 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread frost potential Saturday night into early Sunday.
&&
UPDATE
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Very few changes needed to the going forecast at this time.
Allowed the wind advisory to expire within the last hour, as
gusts have dropping to the 40 mph range at most in far
southeastern ND. Streamers continue to produce showers, but they
are dwindling in coverage, so adjusted PoPs as needed for the
next few hours to try to capture the downward trend in
probabilities.
UPDATE
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
The strongest push of CAA has advanced through the southeastern
FA, with wind gusts of 40-50 mph remaining in its wake. Winds
drop off rapidly just to the north and east of the current wind
advisory, so will leave headlines as is. Wrap around showers
have broken out across much of central ND in the steady CAA
regime. Therefore, raised PoPs over the next several hours to
account for them as they push into our FA. Overall, the forecast
remains on track with few updates needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...Synopsis...
Large, seasonably strong upper low continues to linger within
western Ontario and northern Great Lakes region, with a strong
clipper/shortwave rounding its western flanks out of SK/MB into
the Dakotas and MN. Strong winds associated with the clipper
are impacting portions of ND, and forecast to migrate into
portions of the far southern Red River Valley later this
afternoon/evening (more details on gusty winds below).
Strong forcing for ascent and sufficient moisture associated
with the clipper will continue rain across the region, turning
more showery as it departs with drizzle/mist as well. There is a
low chance for some rumbles of thunder associated with
scattered showers near central ND this afternoon.
As the clipper rounds the western flanks and eventually southern
flanks of the upper low, it will cause the upper low to
retrograde some back westward tonight and Friday. This places
our area under continued cyclonic flow amid cold air advection
continuing to reinforce cooling temperatures aloft. This along
with sufficient moisture lingering will allow continued chance
for scattered, brief showers tonight and Friday. With air
temperatures cool enough, there may be some focus of showers
emanating from larger lakes as a result of lake enhancement
processes. This also will continue breezy conditions through
Friday, with widespread winds gusting to 30 mph out of the
northwest.
This weekend, there is a potential for widespread frost as
seasonably cold and dry air mass moves into the region behind
the now departing upper low. More details on this below.
Into next week, this taste of fall we are currently experiencing
will cease, with a return to average or even above average
temperatures are forecast under building upper ridging into the
north-central CONUS. NBM gives the region over 80% chance of
reaching into the 70s Monday and beyond, with around 30% chance
of reaching into the 80s, relatively higher chance for locations
south of I-94 as well as into the Red River Valley. This
increasing warmth and generally extended period of southerly
flow will provide additional period of showers and
thunderstorms, becoming relatively more likely late next week
after established southerly flow has given enough time for
sufficiently increasing moisture content. At this time, there
are no signals for severe weather within the predictability
horizon into late next week.
By Saturday, the upper low starts to trek back eastward, with
increasing heights aloft amid northwesterly flow. At the
surface, high pressure will build into the area, helping bring
potential for
...Gusty winds this afternoon into early evening...
Bubble of strong cold air advection brushes our area within
southeast ND into the far southern Red River Valley, along with
a small area of sharp surface pressure rise/gradient, will
contribute to gusts in the 45-50 mph into portions of the
western and southern Devils Lake basin as well as into the far
southern Red River Valley this afternoon into early evening. Gusts
may be relatively more sporadic in duration/coverage compared,
although still enough to pose minor impacts given full leaves
still on trees.
...Widespread frost potential late Saturday into early Sunday...
By Saturday, the upper low starts to trek back eastward, with
increasing heights aloft amid northwesterly flow. Seasonably
cold air mass in place will allow temperatures into the 30s
overnight Saturday/Sunday morning. At the surface, high
pressure will build into the area, helping bring potential for
calm and clear nights this weekend. Ensemble guidance favors the
center of high pressure to be closest to our area Saturday
night/Sunday morning, lending highest confidence in efficient
radiational cooling conditions as well as allowing frost to
form. With efficient radiational cooling expected, there is also
potential for freezing temperatures, although at this time
guidance offers around a 10% chance for this to occur.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Recent observations and latest model guidance has become a bit
more optimistic in ceilings through Friday morning. Maintained
MVFR for all sites through at least early morning, but VFR
should return mid to late morning at all sites. The lone
exception is KBJI, where MVFR will persist into the afternoon.
Winds have really calmed down, and should remain under 10 knots
until Friday morning, when gusts back up to about 25 knots will
again occur, persisting through the afternoon. Gusts will wane
by the end of the TAF period, with ceilings breaking up into a
VFR SCT deck.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Rafferty

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion