Oswego, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

859
FXUS62 KCAE 070557
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region today bringing cooler and
drier air to the north and west and a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the south and east. Mainly dry conditions are
expected during the upcoming work week, with below normal
temperatures to start, gradually warming as the week goes on.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Front moving in with strong temperature gradient in place,
  cooler in the north, warmer in the south.
- Scattered showers and storms expected along the front with
  highest chances south of I-20.
Early this morning a surface cold front remains to the northwest of
the area. Based on observations, it appears the front is just moving
into the SC Upstate and will continue to move into the Midlands and
CSRA through the course of the day. Deep layer moisture remains
relatively high, above 1.5 inches across the entire area and is
expected to remain high ahead of the front with drier air moving in
aloft behind it. Shower and thunderstorm coverage today will be
highly dependent on the exact progression of the front with
destabilization, and as a result highest chance for showers and
storms, expected this afternoon. Highest potential for sbCAPE to
exceed 1000 J/kg will be south of I-20 where greater than 50 percent
of members favor this moderate destabilization. As a result, highest
convective coverage expected in the southeastern portion of the
forecast area. Precipitation may be moderate to potentially heavy at
times, especially where the front meets the sea breeze with hires
guidance indicating this will be possible around the I-95 corridor
and areas east. Significant uncertainty in the temperature forecast
for today due to the cold front. A tight temperature gradient will
be in place across the area today with the far northwestern portion
of the forecast area struggling to reach 80 and the southeastern
portion of the area approaching 90. Convection will diminish tonight
with drier air continuing to move in overnight. Lows tonight in the
low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cool and dry conditions for much of the region to start the new
work week. Winds may be breezy at times due to a tight pressure
gradient.
Weak upper troughing will dominate the region during the period.
This combined with surface flow out of the northeast around high
pressure to our north will result in mainly dry conditions and
temperatures below seasonal values. Moisture will be confined to the
coast, though a shower or two cannot be ruled out across the Eastern
Midlands, mainly along and east of I-95. Winds may be breezy at
times due to a tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned
high pressure to our north and an inverted trough off the coast.
Daytime temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s both
days with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry with temperatures warming to near normal values to
close out the work week.
Strong high pressure and continued weak troughing aloft maintain a
northeasterly flow through much of the extended. Moisture is shunted
out of the region due to a reinforcing trough with PWATs at or below
an inch for much of the period. Despite troughing aloft, a warming
trend is expected, with temperatures returning to near normal values
on Thursday and Friday. Long range guidance suggest that below
normal height anomalies will develop next weekend resulting in lower
temperatures once again though the dry weather continues.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions in place with restrictions possible before dawn.
Chance that storms impact the terminals this afternoon/evening.
VFR conditions currently in place with mid level clouds over the
terminals. Guidance has trended less pessimistic for
restrictions early this morning. Still have kept the potential
for tempo ceiling restrictions and possibly visibility
restrictions, although with mid level cloudiness, this does seem
somewhat less likely. VFR conditions return after sunrise. With
a front moving through the area today, scattered showers and
storms develop along the front. While confidence is limited in
exact location and coverage of storms, have added a prob30 group
to each of the TAFs. Winds shifting out of the north as the
front moves through. Restrictions are possible again tonight
but most likely after 06z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Additional restrictions possible
Sunday night. A cooler and drier air mass should settle over
the region early next week behind the front.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion