Owens Cross Roads, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS64 KHUN 012333
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
633 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
No changes have been made to the forecast this afternoon as the
previous thinking remains on track. Dry weather is forecast to
continue. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed up to the low to
mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.
Previous Discussion:
Northeast flow aloft of 15-25 knots will
continue across the TN Valley this morning, but should subside and
veer to ENE overnight as the height gradient collapses between an
amplified 500-mb ridge centered across eastern IL/western IN and
a weak, positively- sheared trough across the southeastern CONUS.
At the surface, an ill-defined trough/streamline confluence axis
currently extends from east-central MS north-northeastward into
western portions of Middle TN, and will serve as the initiating
mechanism for the development of weak convection later this
morning and into the afternoon hours as it slowly spreads westward
and away from the region. Although northeasterly flow in the
mid/upper-levels will maintain dry profiles aloft, sufficient
moisture (dewpoints in the l-m 60s) exists in the boundary layer
for development of a few light-moderate showers and perhaps a
couple of lightning strikes across northwest AL where CAPE may
reach the 500-1000 J/kg range. Otherwise, a couple of showers may
also travel southwestward off the higher terrain to our northeast
later today, potentially impacting the far northeastern corner of
the CWFA late this afternoon or early this evening. With abundant
solar heating expected for the entire region today, highs will
once again range from the u70s-l80s in elevated terrain to the m-u
80s elsewhere.
Overnight, a strong Canadian high (positioned across western
Quebec early this morning) will develop south-southeastward into
southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England, resulting in
surface pressure rises from western VA southwestward into
northern GA. Light ESE winds will begin to advect a slightly drier
airmass westward across the forecast area, with lows ranging from
the u50s (east) to l-m 60s elsewhere. This will once again keep
nocturnal mist/fog formation confined to the valley areas of
northeast AL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Over the course of the short term period, a mid-level ridge
(initially centered across the OH Valley) will become less
amplified with time as it expands eastward off the southern Mid-
Atlantic Coast. To the south of our region, a closed low is
predicted to evolve out of a shortwave trough across the
southeastern CONUS, with this feature predicted to gradually
develop as it retrogrades along the northeastern and north-central
Gulf Coast. This configuration will induce light easterly to
east-southeasterly flow aloft across the TN Valley from Thursday
night-Friday night. In the low-levels, light-moderate
southeasterly flow will continue to advect a dry/continental
airmass into the region on Thursday/Thursday night as the center
of a residual Canadian airmass builds southward into the northern
Mid-Atlantic states. Although the high will begin to weaken
considerably on Friday/Friday night (resulting in a lighter ESE
wind), a dry airmass will remain in place, highlighted by
dewpoints in the u40s-l50s and PWAT values in the 0.6-0.8" range.
Thus, aside from a minor increase in high clouds Friday night, no
impactful weather is expected through the period. Lows will range
from the lower 50s in outlying areas to the upper 50s in urban
locations and near large bodies of water, and although highs
tomorrow will be comparable to values from today, a cooler start
to the day will yield highs in the u70s-l80s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Surface high pressure situated along the coastal Mid Atlantic
region will provide an easterly flow across the Tennessee Valley
into the upcoming weekend. Under generally clear skies, seasonably
mild to warm condition are expected. Highs both Sat/Sun should
rise into the low/mid 80s both days. Milder night lows are
forecast Sat/Sun nights with lows in the lower 60s.
An easterly flow rounding the high along the east coast, will
become more from the SE during Sun, Mon, Tue. This will begin to
tap lower level moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, with an
increase of clouds as we go into the next week. This will return
rain chances to the area beginning Monday. With daytime heating
and higher instability, some thunder is possible in the afternoon
and evening hours with this activity. High temperatures the first
part of next work week should range in the lower 80s, with lows in
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Surface high pressure centered over Quebec will control this
area`s sensible weather into Thu, with VFR conditions expected.
Easterly winds rounding the area of high pressure will become
light tonight, with generally clear skies expected. E-SE winds
of 5-10kt are expected a few hours after sunrise Thu morning.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion