Ozone, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

562
FXUS64 KOHX 242356
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
656 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances through Thursday.
  Low threat for severe storms, a few could produce strong winds
  and heavy downpours.
- There is a low to medium chance of localized flash flooding
  with the pockets of heaviest rainfall.
- Low rain chances for the eastern third of the area over the
  weekend. Most of the area will be dry.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The radar has not been too busy this afternoon with some showers
and an occasional rumble of thunder. CAMs have more activity
moving through the area overnight with a focus on the northwestern
part of the area. I`m not seeing any signals for significant QPF
indicative of flooding but rainfall could be heavy at times.
Showers will be more scattered on Thursday as the surface front
moves through the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are limited to our SW this morning, but
will spread N and E through the afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis
shows a plume of PWATs between 1.70-2.00 inches across the CWA,
with the highest amounts in the SW. The severe threat remains low
through the afternoon, as cloud cover is limiting instability and
lapse rates remain poor. We still have around 20-30 kts of
effective bulk shear, so that will help with storm development
and a provide a low wind threat with the strongest storms. Latest
CAMs have been trying to narrow down timing of storms and seem to
be coming into agreement on two waves of clusters of storms moving
through Middle TN. The first main clusters of storms look to work
their way through this afternoon, and move past the Plateau
tonight. Another cluster of storms move through late tonight
and continue through early Thursday morning. We will have to see
how this trends with later runs.
The main threat other then possibly some strong winds and perhaps
some small hail with the strongest storms, will be excessive
rainfall as we go through the afternoon and overnight.
Contemplated a Flood Watch for Middle TN, but given the
uncertainty of which locations will see the heaviest rainfall,
decided to just message the flooding potential and issue
Advisories and/or Warnings as needed rather than covering everyone
in a Watch.
Going into Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
over Middle TN as our upper trough and associated surface front
slowly swings through. Not expecting any severe storms with this.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Drying begins to take place Thursday night as our upper trough
shifts off to the east. Some low chances for isolated showers
will be possible through the weekend, but mainly limited to east
of I-65, as some energy lags behind the upper trough. That said,
most will remain dry through the weekend. Heading into next week,
some low chances of rain over the Plateau stick around, but
mostly dry weather will set in over Middle TN. Temperatures will be
pleasant, but mild, in the mid 80s west of the Plateau. Overnight
lows will be cool, dropping into the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Isolated showers are developing out ahead of what could be a
second wave of rain with embedded thunderstorms. Instability is
lacking this evening, so uncertainty remains if any storms will
be able to develop. MVFR cigs are moving in from the west with a
further category degradation to IFR overnight. A lift back to
MVFR looks to occur sometime in the morning.
Winds remain southerly through tonight near 10 kts. A gradual wind
shift will occur as the front approaches with winds eventually
turning out of the NW near 18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  82  63  82 /  60  50  10  10
Clarksville    67  80  58  82 /  90  50   0  10
Crossville     65  75  60  74 /  80  80  20  30
Columbia       68  81  61  80 /  50  60  20  10
Cookeville     66  77  61  76 /  70  70  20  20
Jamestown      65  75  60  74 /  80  80  30  20
Lawrenceburg   67  80  61  79 /  60  60  20  20
Murfreesboro   68  82  63  80 /  60  60  20  20
Waverly        65  77  57  79 /  80  50  10  10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Baggett

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion