Palisade, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS63 KLBF 031155
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
655 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple days of elevated to near-critical fire weather
  conditions are likely Friday and Saturday, with greatest
  concern on Saturday.
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place
  for late Saturday as rain and thunderstorms return to the
  forecast favoring western Nebraska.
- Much cooler temperatures arrive for early next week with
  values falling 5 to 10F below normal by Monday with a slow
  climb back to above normal values by late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Early this morning, satellite imagery depicted mostly clear skies
across western and central Nebraska save for some mid-level clouds
invof the Missouri River. Did insert a mention of patchy fog early
this morning across mainly southwest and portions of central
Nebraska. This lines up with latest HREF/SREF probability maximas,
however, dense fog is not expected. Outside of this fog potential,
expecting largely a sunny to mostly sunny day. With anomalous warmth
off the surface through the mid-levels characterized by h85 through
h5 values exceeding the 90th percentile, will see another warm day
across the region. Forecast highs this afternoon will be nearly
identical from Thursday`s values with middle 80s to low 90s, warmest
along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. In addition to that, will
likely see another breezy day with south winds gusting up to 30 mph.
These magnitudes fall just short of the median output of the always
aggressive NBM guidance but closer to hi-resolution guidance output.
Forecast soundings, particularly the NAM, show limited boundary
layer mixing which is reasonable given southeasterly winds and this
should prevent stronger winds from occurring. Winds should remain
breezy well into the overnight through frequency of the stronger
gusts should wane. Lows tonight should hover in the middle 50s west
to middle 60s east. These final values are on the warmer side
compared to statistical guidance but believe as a stronger LLJ takes
shape, we may struggle if not be unable completely to decouple and
so opted to keep things on the mild side.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Saturday/Saturday Night...more active weather arrives as a
disturbance bringing a multi-faceted weather setup moves through the
region. Ridge breakdown begins by early Saturday as deep troughing
across the West Coast quickly lifts north and east across the
central and northern Rockies. By afternoon, as the main disturbance
begins to cross the Continental Divide, lift will increase leading
to modest cyclogenesis. A surface cool front will track south and
east out of South Dakota later in the day but ahead of the feature
strengthening southerly flow will support stronger surface winds
amid another very mild day. With mid-level temperatures still
running above normal and now a more compressed pressure gradient,
expect better boundary layer mixing which should boost afternoon
highs by a few degrees for many. Deeper mixing should be able to tap
into stronger flow as a speed max centered around h7 settles
overhead. Forecast soundings show a good setup for efficient
momentum transfer owing to largely unidirectional flow. The result
is wind gusts likely exceeding 40 mph for many and perhaps as high
as 50 mph for a select few. Cannot completely rule out the need for
High Wind Warnings (50+ knots for any duration) but for now,
confidence is limited. Still though, NBM guidance suggests
probabilities of 50-80% for exceeding 48 knot gusts across portions
of southwest and central Nebraska. Will need to monitor this threat
going forward. As the frontal boundary begins to sag south into
western Nebraska, mid-level PV anomalies will begin to cross the
Front Range. This will lead to scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms. While recent trends have been to slow the arrival of
precipitation, a few locations in our far west may see activity as
early as mid-afternoon before the main wave and brunt of the
precipitation potential arrives for the evening and overnight.
Instability is sorely lacking largely due to meager lapse rates
aloft. That said...strong forcing, strong shear, and just enough
instability (~500 j/kg MUCAPE) should be enough to support at least
a damaging wind gust potential as activity moves off the higher
terrain. Believe any hail threat should be confined to the west of
the forecast area. Hi-resolution guidance, notable the long range
06z HRRR and NAM Nest show discrete storms west of the Highway 385
corridor and upscale growth occurring as activity crosses into the
Sandhills. This jives well with the thinking that wind gusts will be
the main concern. Rainfall potential does not appear to be overly
significant with both EPS/GEFS probabilities of exceeding 0.10" for
the day generally 70% or less outside the Pine Ridge area. With
ongoing convection, the cool front will be reinforced and quickly
shunted south and east out of the area. Dry conditions return by
early Sunday morning though the cooler temperatures may not quite be
apparent yet until later Sunday and Monday.
Sunday and Monday...though the frontal boundary will remain across
central Nebraska, broad westerly/northwesterly flow on Sunday will
begin the cooldown the start the week. Canadian high pressure will
nose in from the northwest and with CAA behind the front, expect a
considerable day-over-day change with breezy conditions continuing.
Highs will range from near 60F in the northwest, to the middle 70s
further south and east. While most precipitation potential should
focus along the frontal boundary later in the day which will remain
well east of the local area, some upslope flow thanks to developing
low pressure to the south may be enough to reintroduce Chance (<
50%) PoPs late Sunday into early Monday. Favored areas will again be
the Sandhills into Panhandle though QPF remains light at 0.10" or
less for most. The coolest day of the week will be Monday with
forecast highs set to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Though
not overly noteworthy, it`ll certainly feel more fall-like under
mostly cloudy skies. Precipitation chances may redevelop later in
the day favoring south of the Platte River system but ensemble
solutions remain split so confidence is low.
Tuesday and beyond...expecting a slow moderation of temperatures in
extended period. Largely below normal values should persist beyond
late week before a return to more seasonable values by the end of
the forecast period. This coincides with shortwave ridging building
across the southern and central Plains around Wednesday/Thursday.
Evolution of the upper-level flow in this timeframe remains
questionable at best as deterministic solutions show large
variations beginning Thursday. Even ensemble solutions show
appreciable discrepancies. Overall, it does appear that ridging will
once again build in towards the following weekend with some trough
moving onshore the West Coast around Friday/Saturday. How a decaying
eastern Pacific tropical system plays in all that will need to be
monitored as a large infusion of moisture appears probable as a
result but how far northeast this treks will be something to watch.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions are likely through the forecast period.
Patchy early morning fog is affecting area terminals, but should
not degrade conditions below MVFR before improving by mid-
morning. The main concern will be winds this afternoon and then
again tonight in the form of LLWS. Gusts are expected to
increase quickly this morning out of the southeast to around 25
knots. Tonight, winds off the surface will increase markedly
with strong LLWS likely affecting both terminals by early
morning Saturday. These LLWS will likely continue through the
end of the valid period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A couple days of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
appear likely Friday and Saturday across western Nebraska.
Friday...breezy south winds will once again develop for much of the
area during the day. Winds appear backed enough that they should
also foster some low-level moisture advection. This will push dew
point values into the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of central and
portions of western Nebraska. Further west, however, a dryline
feature will stall near a Gordon to Sidney line. To the west of this
line, dew points will struggle to climb out of the upper 30s and as
afternoon highs climb into the middle to upper 80s, afternoon
humidity minimums may fall into the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds
along and ahead (east) of this dryline will be strong with gusts
climbing to around 25 to 30 mph. Limiting concern will be limited
overlap of the stronger winds and lower humidity. That said, believe
portions of Zone 204 could see elevated to near-critical conditions
for a few hours this afternoon. Soundings depict deep mixing under
largely cloudless skies so low-level instability will likely be in
place allowing for erratic behavior of any fire starts.
Saturday...the day of greatest concern coming up. Elongated
troughing with an approaching cool front from the north will favor
stronger flow as ridge breakdown begins early in the day. With more
southerly flow likely as the surface pressure gradient constricts,
deeper boundary layer mixing is anticipated. A belt of stronger
winds around 2km up will be easily tapped into and as a result gusts
will range from 35 to 45 mph though some stronger gusts cannot be
ruled out over far north central Nebraska. Temperatures will once
again climb into the upper 80s to near 90F, or 10-20F above normal.
As the frontal boundary arrives from the northwest, Pacific origin
air behind the front will actually support increasing low-level
moisture with southwesterly flow ahead of this being the area of
drier air. So a small wedge of dry air within the area of strongest
wind gusts will be the area to watch for fire weather concerns. This
will include much of southern Zone 204, all of Zones 206/210/219 and
portions of Zones 208/209. For now, no headlines are in effect. This
is largely due to lack of consensus for a need from neighboring
forecast offices and forecast humidity values remaining anywhere
from 8-12% above critical levels. Even so, the strong southerly
winds and humidity falling into the 22-30% range will pose issues
for any fire starts. There remains some indication that at least
some mid and high level clouds will cross our western zones and this
may inhibit the diurnal warmup slightly. Do believe any threat for
precipitation will hold off until late afternoon at the earliest but
mostly likely not arrive until the evening. This threat for
precipitation will also include the threat for gusty/erratic winds
within any thunderstorm. QPF remains limited. Though portions of the
western Sandhills could see wetting rains, this is not expected
expansive and appears likely to be limited to mainly Zone 204.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will likely remain elevated for the
overnight hours for central Nebraska but even so, humidity recovery
should be good with 75% or greater forecast for Sunday morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion