Palos Verdes Peninsula, California Weather Forecast Discussion

654
FXUS66 KLOX 300304
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
804 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...29/803 PM.
Cooler than normal conditions will persist through the week, but
temperatures should rise a little each day starting on Wednesday.
Night through morning low clouds with patchy drizzle will be
possible across the coast and valleys through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...29/707 PM.
***UPDATE***
Currently we have some high clouds in association with a trough
passing through our region. The marine layer is still present
across SLO/SBA counties - it extends all the way to the La Panza
Range similar to yesterday. Drizzle will be possible especially
along the Central Coast overnight. Lower confidence, but still
expecting the marine layer to return to areas south of Point
Conception, & possibly reaching into the Santa Clarita Valley.
A few stations are rather gusty this evening across the western
Antelope Valley foothills with reports over 30 mph. Winds should
average about 5 mph weaker tomorrow afternoon & evening.
Post-frontal Northwest flow is expected to develop mid-week
which will drive the low to moderate potential for advisory level
sundowner winds Wednesday through Friday - most likely on Thursday.
Also, not expecting fire weather concerns due to elevated RH values.
Overall, the forecast is on track.
***From Previous Discussion***
Overall looks like a quiet next few days as a couple of weak
upper level troughs move through the region. The first trough is
passing over the area this afternoon and it`s creating some mixing
in the lower levels that is disrupting the marine layer along the
Central Coast. Hi res models are in pretty good agreement showing
those clouds returning there tonight as well as south of Pt
Conception but confidence with that is definitely on the lower
side, especially with another trough passage expected Tuesday. For
now have left the 4000 ft marine layer in tact across all
coast/valley areas tonight and Tuesday along with the possibility
of some morning drizzle, especially along the Central Coast and up
against the lower coastal slopes. Highs should drop a couple
degrees in most areas, possibly more if clouds linger longer than
today.
Heights will rise Wed and Thu after the trough passes which should
bring the marine layer back down to relatively normal levels and
bring some warmer temperatures to the area. By Thursday highs are
expected to be within a couple degrees of normal in most areas.
There will also be some increasing northerly winds in some areas
but mainly the southwest Santa Barbara County.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...29/210 PM.
The low that is currently spinning off the Aleutian Islands, is
expected to move little through Wednesday, then quickly get shoved
towards the southeast and into Nevada by Friday. There is a range
of placements of where that low will be on Friday, varying from
west to east by about 100 miles. A more west track (smallest
chance) could result in a few isolated showers over the area. A
more east track (higher chance) would result in some gusty west to
northwest winds on Friday, including the ocean and coastal areas.
Fairly benign conditions to follow over the weekend. Another low
will be in the neighborhood early next week, with a lot of signals
pointing to an inside slider track. As should be expected, there
is a lot of uncertainty in terms of timing, track, and impacts -
from high winds, showers and thunderstorms, or gusty north winds
with moderate fire weather concerns. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...30/0255Z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1900 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 4000 feet with a temperature of 19
degrees Celsius.
For the 00Z TAFs, high confidence in desert TAFs, but low to
moderate confidence in the coastal/valley TAFs due to uncertainty
in the timing and extent of low clouds. Flight category changes
could occur +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. MVFR conds
expected overnight but the timing of flight category changes
could be +/- 3 hours of TAF times. There is a 20-30% chance that
no low clouds occur. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of
return of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 3 hours of current 08Z forecast.
There is a 20-30% chance that no low clouds occur.
&&
.MARINE...29/802 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in wind and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Wednesday,
there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670 and a
60-70% chance across PZZ673/676. For Thursday and Friday, there is
a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and seas across all the Outer
Waters. On Saturday, the chances of SCA level winds continuing
drops to 30-50%.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there
is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and
evening hours. For Thursday and Friday, there is a 50-60% chance
of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. On
Saturday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception will be the
western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 40-50% chance of
SCA level winds Tuesday through Friday, mainly in the late
afternoon and evening hours.
Through Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 4 feet will impact
the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south facing
harbors. Starting Wednesday night, a northwest swell will build
to 6 to 10 feet across the Outer Waters and 6 to 8 feet nearshore
waters north of Point Sal, and 3 to 6 feet across the Inner
Waters south of Point Conception Thursday night through Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...29/135 PM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will last into
Wednesday, generated by Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents
and elevated surf are expected to continue for south- facing
beaches, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as
well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the Central Coast.
Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-facing beaches may
see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry beach areas.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY remains in effect for the Malibu Coast, with
surf of 4 to 7 feet again expected. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
remains in effect through Wednesday for all other south-facing
beaches along the Central Coast (4-7 feet), Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties (3-6 feet).
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Black
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...RAT/CMC
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion