Panguitch, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

226
FXUS65 KSLC 012130
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
330 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Drier conditions and gradual warming are expected
through Thursday. Winds will increase ahead of an advancing storm
system Friday. This system and an associated cold front will move
through late Friday through Saturday, bringing much cooler and
more unsettled conditions into the region through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...A dry and mild
southwesterly flow is in place across the Great Basin this
afternoon, allowing for mostly sunny skies and near normal
temperatures across the forecast area. This pattern will remain in
place through the short term period, allowing temperatures to
trend a few degrees warmer Thursday afternoon. Aside from an
increase in high clouds across northwestern Utah Thursday
afternoon, skies will remain generally sunny resulting in a
beautiful early October day.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...There is high confidence on a
storm system to bring gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow to
southwest Wyoming and Utah from Friday and Saturday. Models and
ensembles are in good agreement on details with the longwave
trough, which will track in from the eastern Pacific.
Ahead of the system, there will be a substantial increase in
southwest flow, particularly for southern Utah, where conditions
will remain largely clear and dry through Friday. Winds at 700 mb
will range from roughly 30-35 knots, which should mix efficiently in
the dry environment in that portion of the state ahead of the
trough. This will result in a windy day, with gusts peaking in
excess of 40 mph throughout southern Utah. Winds will be lighter
further north, but gusts will peak in excess of 30 mph for southwest
Wyoming and much of Utah.
Moisture and forcing will also enhance Friday, mainly for soutwest
Wyoming and northern Utah. Upper diffluence will allow for clouds to
increase, with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Model soundings indicate a low end severe threat, specifically a
wind threat, with MLCAPE values of 100-300 J/kg, 30-40 knots of LCL-
EL wind shear, and 500-1000 J/kg of DCAPE.
Convective precipitation will transition to stratiform precipitation
after a baroclinc zone tracks in late Friday into early Saturday.
The front will bring strong cold air advection, with valley highs in
the mid to upper 70s Friday lowering to the mid and upper 50s
Saturday. Precipitation will become likely throughout southwest
Wyoming and northern Utah. Rainfall totals for the urban corridor of
northern Utah will generally range from 0.5-1.00", with most of that
early Saturday.
Cold air advection will result in a lowering of snow levels to
around 8500 feet, where mountain snow accumulations for the Wasatch
and Uinta Mountains will range from 1-4".
Precipitation will taper off Saturday into Sunday, but a shortwave
trough will track in from the north for the end of the weekend.
Scattered rain showers are likely for southwest Wyoming and northern
Utah. Conditions will trend drier and warmer Monday into the week.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly winds will persist until a shift to
southeasterly around 03-04z, likely becoming light and variable for
a couple hours around the transition. VFR conditions will prevail
with mostly clear skies.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds this evening and
overnight will be largely light and terrain-driven, with prevailing
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies. Increasing southerly to
southwesterly flow is expected by late morning to early afternoon on
Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A dry and mild southwesterly flow will reside
across the region through Thursday. Temperatures near normal today
will trend 3-6 degrees warmer on Thursday, while RH trends 5-10%
lower. By Friday this flow will strengthen ahead of an approaching
cold front, resulting in gusty south winds particularly across
areas south of I-80.
A potent storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and
elevated RH across the region for the weekend. Thunderstorms will
be possible along this front Friday afternoon and evening across
northern Utah, followed by widespread precipitation across
northern Utah and the higher terrain of central Utah Saturday.
Wetting rainfall will be likely with this system, and snow levels
Saturday will fall to near 9000 feet across northern Utah. Further
south, little if any precipitation is expected south of I-70/US
Highway 6.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Seaman/Wilson/Cunningham
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NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion