Paragould, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

547
FXUS64 KMEG 021621
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Temperatures today will remain above normal with highs in the
  upper 80s to near 90 degrees with weekend temperatures a few
  degrees cooler.
- A chance for showers will return to the region early next week
  and linger through late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The warmest day of the forecast period is underway with return
flow at the surface and high pressure aloft. High temperatures
today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints are
slightly higher along and west of the Mississippi River as of
10 AM. Expect afternoon Cu development which could attempt to
initiate showers, but given persistent dry air, accumulation is
not expected. High pressure will slowly traverse east on Friday
through the weekend knocking temperatures down a few degrees with
highs in the low to mid 80s.
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a 10% chance of
development along the Florida Gulf Coast over the next 7 days.
This system would bring our first chance of rainfall as early as
Sunday night. Given the 10% chance of development, high QPF and
extreme impacts are unlikely. QPF will require close monitoring
as we await development of the system, but climatologically PWs
look to be above the 75th percentile with some areas (like along
the Tennessee River) above the 90th percentile.
The rainfall from the aforementioned system will be cut fairly
short as a low pressure system tracking across the Northern
Plains to the Great Lakes Region will aim for a cold front to
cross around this time next week. This is still a good way out,
but there is a good potential for widespread rainfall and cooler
temperatures.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southeast winds
will average between 6-9 kts during the day with light winds at
night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Light 20ft winds combined with elevated forecast fuel moisture
keeps fire weather concerns low. Most of the area will have
minimum RH values above 35%, but a few areas along the
Mississippi River will hover around 30%. Rain chances increase
early next week keeping a persistent minimal fire danger concern.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion