Paris Lake California Weather Forecast Discussion

211
FXUS66 KHNX 120922
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
222 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 11 AM Monday through 5 PM
Wednesday.
2. Portions of the Sierra Foothills and the Valley is under a
Marginal (5-15 percent) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Monday and
Tuesday.
3. There is a 10 to 40 percent chance of at least a foot of snow
between 6,000 and 7,000 feet and a 60 to 95 percent chance of at
least a foot of snow above 7,000 feet through 5 PM Tuesday.
4. The San Joaquin Valley has a 25 to 75 percent chance of at
least an inch of rain in 24 hours ending Tuesday at 5 PM. The
Sierra foothills have a 20 to 45 percent chance of at least 2
inches of rain in 24 hours ending at 5 PM Tuesday.
5. Drier and calmer conditions will prevail Thursday into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The trough that is currently sitting over the Great Basin
continues to move away today. However, the cooler temperatures
will continue today along with the winds decreasing throughout
the day.
The big story is the next trough which will slide down the coast
today into tomorrow. This stronger trough is bringing much
colder air that snow levels will drop to 6,000 to 6,500 feet.
However, moisture is the biggest concern as latest models show
a 60 to 80 percent chance of Integrated Water Vapor Transport
values of 250 kg/(m*s), which is stronger than what was
forecast yesterday.
This large amount of moisture will be responsible for a 25 to
75 percent chance of at least an inch of rain in 24 hours for
the San Joaquin Valley ending at 5 PM Tuesday. In the Sierra
foothills, there is a 20 to 45 percent chance of at least 2
inches of rain in 24 hours ending at 5 PM Tuesday. These heavy
rain amounts have led the WPC to issue portions of the San
Joaquin Valley under a Marginal (5-15 percent) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall for Monday and Tuesday. The heavy rain amounts bring a
major concern of debris flows and flooding at burn scars.
Snow is the big concern with this storm as latest probabilities
have a 10 to 40 percent chance of at least a foot of snow
between 6,000 and 7,000 feet and a 60 to 95 percent chance of at
least a foot of snow above 7,000 feet through 5 PM Tuesday. The
large amounts have warranted the upgrading of the Winter Storm
Watch to a Warning for the Sierra Nevada.
Rain and snow will decrease on Wednesday and will move out by
the late afternoon as the trough slides east. Drier conditions
will prevail into next weekend as a ridge of high pressure
begins to move in on Friday into Saturday which will bring
temperatures back up in the Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ337>339.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday
for CAZ323-326>331.
&&
$$
JPK
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion