Parrott, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

271
FXUS61 KRNK 100525
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
125 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of tranquil early autumn weather is expected for the
remainder of the week as a strong high pressure system settles
over the region. Clouds may creep into parts of the piedmont
from a disturbance along the coast, but overall, expecting a
period of comfortable weather with mild afternoon temperatures
and a notable cool crisp feel to the air during the early
mornings.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1) Quiet weather with some clouds in the Piedmont.
Very tranquil weather for our area, but just east of us along
the coast a front with low pressure will swing some clouds
across the Piedmont through the day. Any showers will likely
stay east of our area, but cannot rule out a sprinkle as far
west as South Boston to Keysville.
Still a "chilly" start for the mountains with upper 30s to lower
40s. Should see highs at or about 5 degrees below normal today
with upper 70s from Roanoke east, to lower to mid 70s mountains.
Clouds are likely to linger into Wed night along/east of U.S.
29 but clear out toward dawn Thursday. Slight uptick in
dewpoints will have lows in the lower to mid 50s Piedmont to mid
to upper 40s mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Dry and quiet weather with seasonal temperatures.
Surface high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
through this forecast period, which will keep a prolonged period of
dry weather in the forecast for the area. A 500mb trough over the
eastern US will promote northwest to westerly flow aloft, and
temperatures will be cool through the middle of the week. Subsidence
via the high will suppress any chances for precipitation. Flow at
the surface will transition to more northeast and easterly Thursday
as the center of the high shifts east, and may transport some
moisture off the Atlantic, and could see some lower clouds develop
in the Piedmont. For the most part, dry air throughout most of the
atmosphere will keep even cloud cover at a minimum, aside from
passing high clouds from a front stalled to the south and east of
the area, along the eastern seaboard. That front will be pushed
eastward by another high pressure system originating in
southern Canada by the end of the work week.
Temperatures will be near normal through the period, with highs in
the mid 70s in the west, and low 80s in the east. Overnight will be
up to 5 degrees below normal, in the low 50s. Went on the lower end
of guidance for lows Thursday morning, with high pressure overhead
and good radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Dry weather, temperatures start trending a few degrees above
normal.
The stretch of dry weather and seasonal temperatures continues into
at least the beginning of the next work week. Surface high pressure
will remain wedged against the eastern side of the mountains through
most of the weekend. Aloft, a 500mb ridge builds over the south
central US and the trough over the eastern US starts to get squeezed
farther east, but still remains in the area. Long range guidance
does start to diverge during the weekend, with low pressure setting
up off the east coast and shortwave energy rounding the base of the
trough Saturday. However, with a lack of sufficient moisture in
place, confidence is high that the forecast will remain dry.
Temperatures will trend up a few degrees by the weekend, and highs
will reach up to 7 degrees above normal, generally in the low 80s in
the east and mid 70s in the west. Lows will be right around normal,
to a few degrees above, mainly in the 50s areawide.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 123 AM EDT Wednesday...
VFR conditions are expected across the vast majority of the
region through the valid TAF forecast period. Will see some BKN
VFR cigs at LYH/DAN in the 4-6kft range. Fog may impact LWB/BCB
with MVFR, possibly IFR vsbys in the 09-12z time range.
AMD NOT SKED has been added to the KLWB TAF. Observations are
not being reported between roughly 2300Z and 1230Z as the tower
is not staffed during this time to take manual surface
observations. Parts are on order for the automated system.
Confidence in the above aviation weather scenario is moderate
to high.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions expected through the weekend, outside any patchy
late night/early morning mountain valley fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...DS/WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion