Pasagshak State Recreation Site, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

411
FXAK68 PAFC 280033
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...
A low in the southern Gulf weakens and high pressure builds in
from the west, increasing chances for cooler, sunnier conditions
across Southcentral to begin the new week.
As the surface low in the southern Gulf weakens, showery waves
will lift northward along the coast this afternoon through early
Monday morning. Light rain could make its way over the Chugach
Range into Anchorage and the MatSu valley, but higher elevations
are more likely than lower elevations to see measurable
precipitation.
A drier and cooler airmass then moves in from the north for
Monday. As cloud cover diminishes from west to east, there is an
increased chance for freezing nighttime temperatures and frost to
affect uncovered vegetation and outdoor plants. This will be
heavily dependent on cloud cover, as clear skies will be necessary
for temperatures to reach freezing. The coolest temperatures are
expected Tuesday morning for the Anchorage and MatSu areas, and
Wednesday morning for the Copper River Basin. Low temperatures
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, with milder temperatures
along the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island with lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)...
Key Points:
* Overnight lows dip into the 20s tonight for much of Southwest
  Alaska, then trend slightly warmer through the beginning of
  next week.
* A compact low brings rain and localized winds to gale force as
  it moves from the Pribilof Islands on Sunday afternoon to the
  Alaska Peninsula by Monday afternoon.
* A front brings gusty onshore winds to the Kuskokwim Delta by
  Tuesday afternoon.
Discussion:
Active weather continues as several storms move across the region
through early next week. Northwesterly winds are diminishing
across the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay as the low previously
near Kodiak Island exits into the Gulf of Alaska. A transient
ridge moves in behind it, bringing clearer skies to Southwest
Alaska. Radiative cooling under clear skies will allow
temperatures to drop into the 20s from tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Fog is possible, but near-surface moisture will likely
be too low to support widespread fog.
The next storm of note is already moving into the Western and
Central Bering Sea. Expect southeasterly winds to gale force and
periods of moderate to heavy rain along its front. As this front
moves over the Pribilof Islands Sunday afternoon, a robust upper
level low will help spin up a compact surface low along the front.
This feature has been a major source of forecast uncertainty.
With minimum sea level pressure around 990 mb, the low could
bring localized gales. However, models have had difficulty with
its track. As such, forecast confidence is lowest from about
Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for an area extending
from the Pribilof Islands south through the Eastern Aleutians,
Alaska Peninsula, and North Pacific. Therefore, residents and
mariners in these areas are encouraged to stay tuned to forecast
updates.
The final feature of note is a front that moves across the Bering
Sea from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds
up to gale force are possible along this front. As the front moves
into the Kuskokwim Delta coast on Tuesday, there is potential for
onshore flow to cause issues with high surf or coastal flooding.
However, there`s still a fair amount of uncertainty with this
storm system. In some model solutions, the parent low remains
mostly over Eastern Russia, and the front is relatively weak. In
other model solutions, mesolows spin up and could bring winds to
gale force. The other factor here will be the duration of onshore
winds. It`s hard to say, for now, what impacts may be. However, we
will continue to monitor this system for potential coastal
impacts.
-Chen
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...
A somewhat disorganized pattern is in store for the Bering on
Wednesday of next week, with a broad upper trough situated over
the Bering Strait and a pair of smaller waves moving just south of
the Aleutians and also into Southwest Alaska. Rain should be
ongoing across Southwest Alaska as a shortwave and front move
inland from the Bering. The shortwave continues into Southcentral
late Wednesday into Wednesday night, likely bringing showers into
the Susitna Valley and Kenai Peninsula. After this occurs there is
more uncertainty in the long range forecast, though deterministic
models are in surprisingly good agreement. As the upper trough
over the Bering Strait finally kicks out into the Brooks Range on
Thursday, a new upper trough is forecast to take its place.
Meanwhile, a North Pacific low emerges into the Western Aleutians.
The combination of the two features should amplify the pattern
with a longwave trough taking shape over the Bering while high
pressure ridges from the Gulf of Alaska into Southcentral. This
will see a greater likelihood of drier conditions for
Southcentral to start the following weekend. However, shower
chances will expand in coverage, becoming widespread across the
Bering, Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska by Friday, with activity
spilling into Southcentral late Saturday.
BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Multiple weak shortwaves continue to pass overhead from
northeast to southwest, each bringing some showers into the area
with them. Even if a shower does make it over the airport, it
looks like VFR conditions will remain through Sunday. Expect
northerly surface winds of 10 kt or less through Sunday.
&&
$$

NWS AFC Office Area Forecast Discussion