Passage Key National Wildlife Refuge Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

962
FXUS62 KTBW 070029
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
829 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Recent KTBW radar shows most thunderstorm activity has either
moved offshore or tapered off at this time, though some light
echoes are still drifting westward across portions of the region.
As the atmosphere continues to stabilize this evening, any
remaining shower activity should generally fizzle out by around
midnight with skies becoming partly cloudy and overnight lows
dropping into the low/mid 70s. Other than some minor adjustments
to recent radar trends, the ongoing forecast remains on track with
no other changes needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Deep tropical moisture continues to reside over Florida. A surface
high over the east coast is keeping the area in an easterly flow,
though winds have subsided a bit now that the pressure gradient has
relaxed. A weak surface low just off the southeast coast of Florida
also lingers. Overall, these features will allow plenty of moisture
to hang around, increasing cloud coverage and rain chances. Today
and tomorrow rain chances will shift from the east coast of FL in
the morning to the west coast in the afternoon into the evening.
Wednesday rain chances will decrease as some dry air filters in to
the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Rain chances increase
again Friday as a cold front takes aim at Florida. The front is
expected to move through the area over the weekend leaving a trail
of cooler and drier conditions. Current forecast has lows in the 60s
and highs in the low to mid 80s behind the front. Before that shot
of cooler, fall-like weather, we will still have this week of more
summer-like weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Areas of MVFR CIGs possible tonight across portions of the area as
abundant low level moisture remains in place. Scattered SHRA and
isolated TSRA will then occur by Tuesday afternoon and evening
with occasional flight restrictions possible at times,
particularly during periods of heavier precipitation. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow outside of any shower
activity with breezy easterly winds and occasional gusts of 15-20
kts will be possible through Tuesday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Though marine conditions have improved slightly, small craft should
still exercise caution. Easterly winds remain gusty especially over
the open water. This pattern continues through the week, with
another surge of higher winds expected Friday into Saturday as a
cold front move over the waters. Showers and storms could also make
it over the waters this evening as they move from the east coast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Fire weather concerns remain minimal as ample moisture remains over
the region. A shot of dry air is expected early next week after a
cold front moves through this weekend. However, RH values should
remain above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  90 /  10  30   0  20
FMY  76  89  74  90 /  20  50  10  40
GIF  75  88  74  90 /  10  40   0  20
SRQ  75  89  74  90 /  20  40  10  20
BKV  73  89  69  91 /  10  30   0  20
SPG  76  87  76  88 /  10  30   0  20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion