Paul, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

930
FXUS63 KOAX 291006
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
506 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures through the end
  of the work-week.
- Potential for strong frontal system next weekend which could
  bring in cooler, more seasonable temps for the following week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The area is under H5 ridging with the polar jet pushed mostly north
of the US/Canadian border. Weak diffluence at H5 is producing
weak forcing for ascent. Sfc winds are are mostly calm, but
those recording some air movement are mostly reporting weak
return flow. Skies are primarily clear and current temps are
nearly 10 degrees warmer than they were 24 hours prior.
Sunny skies today will be partially clouded with more wildfire
smoke from afar. Impacts will be minimal or imperceptible as
most smoke will remain above the surface. Guidance also shows
increasing cloud cover this afternoon tied to a very subtle
shortwave caught up in the weak north steering flow. It`s
currently detectable on WV imagery this morning with an area of
cloud cover developing over northern Colorado and Wyoming.
Another - stronger - wave is rounding the base of the broad
trof over the Four Corners region. This wave will only bolster
the sky cover, leaving Tuesday mostly cloudy. Monday`s highs
will rival Sunday`s, but Tuesday`s highs will represent a drop
of 3-8 degrees or so due to the reduced solar insolation. Highs
remain above average nonetheless.
80s are expected for the remainder of the work week`s max temps,
although by Friday, some 90s may be popping up on the map.
.THE WEEKEND...
A shortwave working through the southern reaches of the Canadian
provinces will drag a cold front through the High Plains on
Friday night or Saturday morning, bringing a possible end to
the dry spell (PoPs 20-40%) and stretch of unseasonably warm
temperatures.
A cutoff low approaches from the southwest on Saturday
night/Sunday morning and general trofing is expected in place
by early next week. In other words, all indications point to an
absolute pattern change during October`s first weekend. PSL fans
rejoice.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Isolated fog has developed in spots, but most areas including
the three TAF aerodromes are reporting unimpeded visibility and
it is forecast to remain that way. VFR conditions are forecast
to persist through the day with southerly winds of 5-15 knots
forecast. Expect increasing cloud cover mostly at FL250.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion