Pawnee Pass Trail, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

917
FXUS65 KBOU 032015
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
215 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Becoming windy most areas Saturday with elevated fire weather
  conditions.
- Showers and a few storms graze the high country tonight, but
  become more numerous Saturday. A dusting of new snow likely
  (70%) for the mountains into Saturday evening.
- A few strong to severe storms over the northeastern plains
  Saturday pm, with the main threat damaging winds.
- Cooler Sunday through early next week...but warmer temperatures
  likely to return by mid/late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Southwest flow will strengthen through Saturday as an upper level
low moves east across the Great Basin, and then ejects northeast
into Western Wyoming Saturday afternoon. 700 mb winds increase to
35 kts, so the windier areas (mountains, Palmer Divide, and
eastern plains) should see peak gusts of 35-40 mph as the airmass
will become well mixed by afternoon. Farther north (roughly from
Boulder - Fort Collins), winds will be slower to establish
themselves and in fact quite likely may not through most of the
day given some blocking and even potential for a backdoor cold
front. Regarding shower and storm chances, the increasing QG
forcing will aid development through the day, with the highest
coverage in the mountains spreading to the northern border area
where moisture is not as limited. Farther south and southeast
across the plains, it will be drier but still a low chance of a
high based shower/storm. However, given the strength of the
environmental flow and DCAPE near 1000-1100 J/kg, any high based
shower/storm will be capable of producing severe wind gusts to 60
mph. SPC has a Marginal Risk for now and that looks good, although
I wouldn`t be surprised to see that expanded a bit considering
synoptic scale lift to aid coverage.
Temperatures turn cooler behind passage of the cold front late
Saturday afternoon and evening, with winds turning more
west/northwest. The colder temperatures should allow for a dusting
of snow (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion