Pearl River County Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

940
FXUS64 KLIX 141655
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1155 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Enjoy the last day or so of dry air as moisture slowly returns
   mid to late week.
 - Early indications of another cold front arriving this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Upper level high pressure becomes pretty much centered right over
our area today, which will dominate our weather pattern through the
short term. With a northerly flow still in place, we will continue
to see lower humidity through Tuesday and Wednesday. With many areas
seeing RH values into the low 30s Tuesday, some potentially touch
the upper 20s, and rising up some into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Into Thursday, we will see a little bit of a pattern shift as winds
turn more E/ESE which starts to bring a little moisture back into
the region. Though we see a little moisture creep back in, it will
not be very much so no rain chances to be seen for the short term
forecast period.
In terms of temperatures, Tuesday will be fairly similar to Monday
with afternoon highs in the mid 80s for most of the area. Wednesday
and Thursday we will be a touch warmer, into the upper 80s for some,
which will be back to around 5-7 degrees above climate normals for
this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Into the long term period we see a deepening trough in the desert SW
gradually sliding eastward towards our region. This looks likely to
bring a cold front through the area sometime over the weekend. While
the GFS has the trough on the deeper side compared to the Euro, both
do have the cold front as a feature which helps bring confidence
that it will come through here. Out ahead of the front we will see
increased southeasterly winds off the Gulf which will help advect
plenty of moisture back into our area. With this, we see PoPs rise
throughout the weekend, with Saturday seeing 35-45% for western
areas and Sunday bringing 50% for the entire area. While the
features seem to be in agreement there is still some slight
differences in timing of rain and storms between the globals. The
new run of the GFS has the bulk of the event through our area by
late Saturday into the very early Sunday hours. Meanwhile the Euro
does not really start much until that time. We will need to continue
to monitor how the timing trends as that could cause a difference in
the ability to see some stronger storms develop. SPC does highlight
parts of northern Louisiana under a risk of severe weather, but
mentions a decent amount of uncertainty about the threat more
downstream.
In advance of the front Beyond the rain and storms, this cold
front will bring us back to average high temperatures again, into
the mid 80s late in the weekend and early next week. Let`s hope
one of these times the normal temperatures can stick around for
longer than a day or two!
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
All terminals are VFR and will remain that way through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the
east and southeast on Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more
variable and below 10 knots while seas remain below 2 feet through
Wednesday. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to
10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing
high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these
stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the
waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore
winds to 15 to 20 knots on Saturday.  Seas will respond and increase
to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters.  After the front moves
through on Sunday, these higher winds will shift to the northwest,
but choppy conditions will persist.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  86  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  86  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  84  67  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  86  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion