Pearl, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

239
FXUS61 KBTV 191755
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
155 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight and again
on Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to mid
30s in most spots, though remaining closer to 40 degrees near Lake
Champlain. Otherwise, the weather will remain dry through the
weekend, with some increased shower chances for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Friday...The Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning headlines
remain in place for tonight, with another round likely Saturday
night.
High pressure is currently nosing down out of Canada this afternoon,
and it will continue to slowly build over the region through the
first half of the weekend. We`re already seeing a decrease in cloud
cover as the drier, cooler airmass spreads into our area, and expect
we`ll have clear skies and light winds by the time the sun sets this
evening. This will set up optimal radiational cooling conditions,
especially in northern/central areas. Temperatures are expected to
drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s in most areas, with some mid 20s
possible in the usual cold prone locations in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. Areas close to Lake Champlain will remain in the
upper 30s to around 40. Saturday will be on the cool side but expect
there to be ample sunshine, with lighter winds than today. The ridge
axis will start to move eastward late Saturday night, but overall
expect another good night for radiational cooling. Lows will be
similar to tonight, perhaps a little warmer in the St Lawrence
Valley if south winds are able to pick up a little bit toward
morning, and perhaps a little cooler in eastern VT as the high
crests overhead. Expect we`ll need Frost/Freeze headlines again for
Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Friday...The ridge starts to push eastward of
our region Sunday and Sunday night. The main impacts will be
increasing south flow, which will lead to warmer conditions for
the second half of the weekend. Highs on Sunday will be in the
upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. We could see some increasing
mid/high cloud cover, but it should remain fairly thin, so
anticipate partly to mostly sunny skies to prevail through the
day. However, these clouds will thicken in earnest Sunday night
ahead of our next system approaching from the Great Lakes
region. This increasing cloud cover, along with continuing south
flow will keep overnight temperatures much warmer than the
previous couple of nights, especially west of the Green
Mountains. These areas will drop into the low 40s to low/mid
50s. Meanwhile, eastern VT will have lighter winds and should
see clouds later in the night, so lows in the upper 30s to low
40s seem reasonable.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Friday...A brief bout of more active weather
conditions will begin on Monday through Wednesday. Ensemble bricks
suggest there could be several possibilities for at least some
rainfall. Temperatures will be seasonable to a few degrees above
climo norms. Anticipate 60s to mid 70s during the day and 40s to
lower 50s with our cold hollows locally into the 30s.
Potential for rain will come as a pair of vort maxes quickly swing
east ahead of an upper low digging southwards from the Arctic.
Looking at the various clusters amongst the different ensemble
suites, forecast scenarios diverge based on the degree of separation
between the two leading vort maxes and the incoming upper low. The
GEFS favors more interaction and higher probabilities of
precipitation, while most favor less interaction and generally less
precipitation. This type of pattern has been common recently, and
the forecast scenarios that have favored a deeper, more robust low
have lately been the incorrect ones. Another source of uncertainty
comes from whether a trailing shortwave will be positioned over the
Mississippi River Valley, or if that feature will be over the Great
Lakes for the middle of next week.
The first opportunity for rain will arrive Monday afternoon as a
cold front shifts east. The better dynamics will lift north of the
border with the front possibly washing out, and moisture associated
with this initial batch will be marginal, at best. So scattered,
light precipitation will be possible on Monday. Then, as the upper
low begins to sag southwards, a combined feed of Pacific and Gulf
moisture will lift north. How far north will depend on the placement
of another system lingering near the Mississippi River Valley. The
closer it is, the more south flow over incoming cool air will
provide better isentropic lift. However, if it`s too far away, then
the 500 mb pattern will feature channeled flow and limited northward
transport of moisture. Regardless, it seems some of the moisture in
the combined ocean feeds skirts southern Vermont on Tuesday. If it`s
farther north, then we could get a beneficial rain lasting Tuesday
into Wednesday; however, this is the lower probability scenario.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Only a few stratocumulus with bases around 2000-4000 ft agl
will soon dissipate. Breezy north to northwest winds of 7 to 13
knots and gusts to 20 knots will gradually slacken after 22z. Most
spots will be light and variable outside channeling north flow in
the Champlain Valley impacting KPBG and KBTV. Despite this, winds
just off the surface will remain about 15 knots with very limited
low-level moisture. So fog is not anticipated overnight. Clear skies
and returning north to northwest winds of 5 to 9 knots is expected
beyond 12z Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Near critical fire weather conditions will continue through this
afternoon. Relative humidity values are currently in the 40 to
55 percent range and should continue to lower over the next few
hours. Meanwhile, north to northwest winds remain a little
breezy with gusts 15 to 25 mph. These parameters combined with
the drought conditions has resulted in fuels remaining very dry
per coordination with partners. So if any fires were to start,
the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get
out of control and be difficult to contain.
Winds will abate as we head toward sunset and will remain below
10 mph through the day on Saturday. So while minimum relative
humidity values will be lower than today, in the 20 to 30
percent range, don`t anticipate fire weather conditions to be
quite so near critical as today. Moisture will start to
gradually increase on Sunday, with shower chances returning
early next week.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ002-003-
     006>008-010-016-017.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ026-027-
     029-034-087.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion