Pearlington, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

263
FXUS64 KLIX 042316
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
616 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
A persistent trough over the eastern half of the CONUS now looks
to remain in place through the entire short term period. This will
keep a west to northwest flow regime in place in the mid and upper
levels. The trough will weaken slightly tomorrow, but strong
ridging in the low to mid levels will keep a very dry and stable
airmass in place across the region. On Saturday, a reinforcing
shot of northern stream energy will slide down from the northwest.
This will help to deepen the broader longwave trough and also
transport in some upper level moisture. PWATS will climb from
below the 25th on Friday to the median for this time of year on
Saturday. The one limiting factor for higher rain chances on
Saturday as the trough moves through will be weak mid-level lapse
rates. As a result, the forecast only calls for isolated coverage
Saturday afternoon despite the favorable kinematic forcing in
place. Temperatures will continue to run warmer than average each
day due to the dry airmass in place. Highs will climb into the low
to mid 90s each afternoon. Fortunately, the dry air will keep heat
index values in check at around 100 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
The trough axis will start to push east of the area on Sunday as a
much stronger cold front will through. This front will be the
first front of the season to have some cold air advection be
associated with it. However, the cold air will be a bit delayed
until Monday, so temperatures will still be near or slightly above
average on Sunday. Moisture will still be near the median on
Sunday, so there could be some isolated convection that fires up
in the afternoon hours across the area. However, the weak lapse
rates in the mid-levels will persist, so more widespread rainfall
is not expected.
A very dry airmass will also accompany the colder air and this dry
air will linger through the end of the long term period with PWATS
running between 1.1 and 1.4 inches over the period. Ample
subsidence aloft will keep a strong capping inversion in place, so
rain chances will be extremely limited through Wednesday. At most,
some very isolated shower and thunderstorm activity could develop
in extreme coastal Louisiana on Tuesday and Wednesday as
temperatures slowly warm back into the upper 80s.
The dry air will also support a very large diurnal range next week
on the order of 30 degrees. Lows will plunge into the 60s across
most of the area each night with only areas just south of Lake
Pontchartrain remaining in the low 70s due to the warmer lake
waters modifying the temperature as northerly winds pass over.
Overall, a very pleasant stretch of weather is anticipated in the
extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Generally VFR conditions across all terminals through the forecast
period. The only exception might be some brief visibility
restrictions (MVFR) at KMCB around sunrise Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
A broad area of high pressure will remain over the waters through
Saturday. This will keep winds light and variable at 5 knots or less
and seas relatively calm at 1 foot or less. However, a strong front
is anticipated to move through the waters on Sunday. Winds will
quickly shift to the north and increase to 10 to 15 knots after the
front moves through. A reinforcing front on Monday will further
increase the northerly winds into small craft advisory range of
20 to 25 knots. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet and turn
rough as these winds persist. Conditions are expected to only
gradually improve on Tuesday as a high pressure system builds in
from the north with winds of 15 to 20 knots continuing across the
waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  94  71  91 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  73  94  73  92 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  72  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  76  91  76  91 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  74  89  73  90 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  72  89  72  91 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion