Pearson, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

922
FXUS62 KJAX 051249
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
No changes to ongoing forecast as drier airmass with PWATs just
over an inch will keep convection to a minimum today with only a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly
south of a line from Ocala to Palm Coast. The east coast sea
breeze will push well inland today with increasing East winds to
10-15 mph and will keep highs in the upper 80s at the Atlantic
Beaches and around 90F along the I-95 corridor, while inland areas
will reach into the lower to middle 90s under mostly sunny skies.
The lower humidities will keep peak heat indices in the upper 90s
to around 100F this afternoon. Not as cool tonight with lows in
the mid/upper 60s across inland SE GA, around 70F across inland NE
FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Some slow increase in
low level moisture will help to develop some patchy late night fog
over inland areas, mainly across inland SE GA and along the
Altamaha River Basin towards sunrise.
&&
.NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight...
Rising dewpoints will raise the floor for low temps early this
morning as 24-hr temp changes are currently running 4-6 degrees
warmer than this time last night. With the increasing near surface
moisture, patchy inland fog across NE FL around sunrise.
Temperatures will begin to trend up today, especially at inland
locations where highs are expected to reach the low 90s under mostly
sunny skies. Weak high pressure stretched across the area through
today as residual frontal trough axis rests across southern FL. With
the mid and upper level dryness, rain free conditions are expected
once again today. There could be an isolated shower or two across
the southern zones and the Flagler county coast where convergence
and a bit better upper moisture will exist.
The trough to south will creep northward tonight enhance onshore
flow and convergence along the St Johns and Flagler county coast
tonight which may lead to a few coastal showers. Otherwise, dry
conditions with lows dropping into the upper 60s in SE GA and low
70s across inland NE FL and mid 70s at the coast. Patchy inland fog
and low stratus is a possibility again Saturday AM and pockets of
dense fog can`t be ruled out.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
This weekend, the area will between a frontal boundary across the
FL peninsula slowly lifting northward and an approaching cold front
arriving from the northwest. A broad trough extending from Ontario
south into the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest on Saturday
will shift into the eastern Great Lakes and OH/TN valley on Sunday.
With increasing moisture from the south, expect increased chances
for showers and T`storms over north central FL Saturday with
diminishing chances further north to I-10 and mainly dry conditions
over SE GA, then as the cold front arrives Sunday isolated to
scattered T`storms will develop along the front over SE GA and also
across northeast Florida from lift along a progressive Atlantic
seabreeze, strong heating destabilizing the low levels, and above
average moisture pooling northward from the south. Increase in
0-6 km shear and cooler mid level temps on Sunday ahead of the
front may allow a few stronger T`storms to form and support a
threat for higher wind gusts 40-55 mph along with small hail.
East northeasterly winds will continue, highest along the coast
10-15 mph and diminishing to 5-10 mph west of I-95.
Heating up with low 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
Max heat index values will rise to 95-100 Saturday and 100-105
on Sunday as dewpoints rise to the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
High pressure to the north building eastward will begin to increase
the pressure gradient locally Monday as inverted troughing forms
near the Gulf stream waters beyond the offshore waters in the wake
of the cold front moving south of the area. This pattern will bring
numerous to widespread showers and scattered to numerous T`storms
along the NE FL coast inland to I-75 and locally heavy rainfall as
convergent bands of showers and T`storms push onshore. In addition,
breezy conditions will prevail through much of the week as the high
to the north shifts more to the northeast, wedging a cooler and
drier airmass down the lee of the Appalachian mountains leading to
northeasterly winds at the beaches 15-20 mph with higher gusts to
30 mph and 10-15 mph inland. Multiple days of high rip currents,
elevated surf, and beach erosion will impact the beaches until
the gradient relaxes late in the week as the high weakens to the
northeast as another cold front arrives from the northwest next
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conds expected today with just a few high clouds and some SCT
Cu development after 16-17Z in the 3500-4000 ft range, otherwise
East to Northeast winds increase to around 10 knots after 16-17Z.
Winds decrease around sunset with VFR conds at coastal TAF sites,
while some MVFR VSBYS in fog is expected at GNV/VQQ late in the
TAF period towards sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore flow continues between a ridge of high pressure and a
leftover frontal trough laying across southern Florida. An
approaching cold front will send a surge of northeasterly winds
southward down the coast through Monday. Prolonged small craft
advisory conditions are possible throughout next week as strong
high pressure and a coastal trough maintain and potentially
enhance gusty northeasterly winds and elevate seas.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents is expected with
breakers around 2-3 ft. A cold front and northeasterly wind surge
will elevate surf and increase rip current risk next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Tides in the upper portions of the St Johns river have lowered as
northerly flow relaxed. There could be elevated tides due the
higher astronomical tides this weekend. A prolonged period of
northeasterly flow next week will combine to astronomical tides
to Minor Flood levels again, particularly south of Jacksonville.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  67  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  87  73  87  74 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  91  70  92  73 /   0   0  20  10
SGJ  89  74  90  75 /  10  10  40  20
GNV  95  70  94  72 /  10  10  50  10
OCF  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  60  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion