Pearsonia, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

962
FXUS64 KTSA 092326
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures into
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, albeit in a declining phase,
across portions of southeast Kansas late this morning and making a
run at areas of northeast Oklahoma along the Kansas and Missouri
borders. CAMs continue to show potential for this activity to make
it this far south by early afternoon before diminishing. This makes
sense given the continued presence of dry air across the area and
lower instability in that part of the forecast area. Dry weather
should prevail areawide thereafter, with overnight lows tonight
similar to those last night in eastern Oklahoma and several degrees
warmer in northwest Arkansas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Upper level ridging will continue to build into the Southern and
Central Plains this week, pushing the storm track farther north and
leading to warmer temperatures and largely dry conditions. Before
the ridge fully builds into area, there are some signals that a
disturbance moving along the northeast side of the ridge may be
enough to bring a few showers and thunderstorms into parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tomorrow and into
tomorrow evening. The current thinking is that any precipitation
will remain north and east of the area but the above does remain a
low confidence scenario. Expect that along with the return of above
normal temperatures, higher dew points will tag along, leading to it
feeling humid once again. The ridge will break down some late in the
weekend and into early next week, as the western trough makes a
closer approach and a strong disturbance ejects into the Central
United States. Although the bulk of the energy will remain well
north of the area, this should be enough to drop temperatures a
couple of degrees and possibly, bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to mainly northern portions of the forecast area. Will
ride with the non-mentionable PoPs offered by the NBM for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms currently across swrn
MO look to stay east of nwrn AR terminals as they move southeast and
weaken next couple hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected at all
sites through the forecast period, with mainly variable high clouds
passing through the area. Light and variable wind tonight, becoming
light southerly Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  88  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  91  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  89  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   59  87  62  91 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   58  89  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   61  90  63  92 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   60  89  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   61  87  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
F10   61  89  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  87  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion