Pease School Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

744
FXUS64 KLCH 151103
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm weather anticipated through mid week, with moisture
  returning throughout Thursday and Friday as onshore flow
  becomes reestablished
- Small rain chances return on Friday, with more substantial rain
  chances Saturday into Sunday with the approach and passage of an
  upper level trough and associated cold front
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
High pressure at both the surface and aloft continue to dominate the
forecast area tonight, and will continue to do so through roughly
the next 24-36 hours before the synoptic pattern finally begins to
shift. Until then, another hot and dry day is on tap today with zero
rain chances and low humidity once again expected. Once again, an
elevated risk for wildfires will exist today, as afternoon relative
humidity values bottom out in the 30-40% range.
Overnight, surface winds shift more east to southeast as surface
high pressure shifts towards New England, allowing for an initially
slow increase in moisture mainly across the our coastal
counties/parishes. Tomorrow, moisture return ramps up further as
upper ridging begins to weaken overhead, opening the door for
moisture to increase throughout the column. While moisture
increases throughout the day Thurs, we will be starting from a very
dry baseline, so initial changes will be minimal and more so
noticeable in slightly more cloud cover and higher dewpoints by Thurs
afternoon. Moving into Friday, after around 24 hours of slow but
steady moisture return we see the return of rain chances, the first
in several days. Friday, best chance for rain will be across SE TX,
with very minimal chances for adjacent SW LA. The remainder of the
CWA can expect another warm and humid afternoon, with highs reaching
into the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Rain chances ramp up as we move into the weekend, as upper level
troughing shifts across the Plains and an embedded shortwave
approaches the Ark-La-Tex region on Sat. SPC has outlined a Day 5
Slight Risk just to our north, and while there is no outlook for
the CWA at this point this definitely looks like something to
watch, as I wouldn`t be surprised if we see at least a MRGL for
northern parts of the area. For now, looking at increasing rain
chances through the morning, with at least scattered convection
persisting into the afternoon and evening hours ahead of this
trough/shortwave. With a significant amount of moisture expected
to be available by then, heavy wouldn`t be surprised to see some
heavy downpours as well, but with how dry we`ve been I know this
will be welcomed by many.
Finally by Sunday the upper trough axis will be shifting east of the
area, allowing a dry NWrly flow to set up briefly overhead. In
addition, a weak trailing cold front will sweep through the CWA Sat
night/Sun morning, bringing a drier airmass into the area for the
end of the weekend. Any lingering convection early Sun should taper
off through the morning hours, giving way to a dry and seasonal
afternoon. Unfortunately, this dry period won`t really last, as
onshore flow quickly returns on Mon and allows dewpoints to creep up
once again, leading to more above average temps through the early
work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Weak surface ridge will begin to move off to the east of region
today. This will allow light northeast winds to become more east
and east-southeast at less than 10 knots during the afternoon.
Moisture still looks very low and therefore not much in the way of
cloud cover with VFR conditions prevailing during the period.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Light to moderate NE winds today will gradually shift E this
afternoon into tonight and then more ESE to SE Thurs through Fri
as surface high pressure moves off to our east. Thurs night into
Fri, winds will begin to increase slightly, with gusts around
15-18 kts. Now through the weekend, waves will remain below 4
feet. Rain chances will return on Friday and continue until the
passage of a cold front on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Low RH and dry conditions will keep fire concerns elevated across
the region again today. Currently, multiple parishes have burn
bans in place across Acadiana along with counties in southeast
Texas. Conditions will start to improve slowly tomorrow and more
substantially on Friday as south winds will bring in more
moisture. Rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend with
the approach and passage of an upper trough and cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  87  64  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  87  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  86  65  85  70 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion