Pebble Beach, California Weather Forecast Discussion

678
FXUS66 KMTR 042025
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
125 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Warmer and drier conditions through midweek, with moderate
   offshore wind expected through Tuesday in the higher elevations
- Next chance for rain late next week, yet lowering confidence in
   amount of rainfall
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
(This evening through Sunday)
The mid/upper level low pressure is currently over Utah/Wyoming and
will become absorbed into the long wave pattern over the next 12-24
hours. Meanwhile, building high pressure over the eastern Pacific
will support moderate north-northwesterly winds along the coast and
in the Salinas Valley this afternoon. However, north-northeasterly
(offshore) winds prevails in the higher elevations, strongest across
the North Bay region.
The marine layer is projected to become suppressed to around 1,000
feet in depth overnight. This would allow for stratus to return to
coastal areas and into some of the adjacent valleys. Offshore winds
will once again increase overnight and into tomorrow morning before
easing a bit by Sunday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will
generally remain in the 50s.
Any low clouds that do develop will dissipate by late Sunday
morning. Sunday is looking like it will be another warm day, warming
up a few degrees from our forecast maximum temperatures Saturday
afternoon. Thus, afternoon temperatures on Sunday will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast to lower 80s inland under
mostly sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)
A cut-off low will develop within the upper level trough over the
Bay Area on Monday and the gradually shift to the southwest. This
will likely result in increasing offshore winds from late Sunday
night into Monday morning across the higher elevations in the North
Bay. Wind gusts will likely be between 35 and 45 (potentially
stronger) in places such as Mount Saint Helena in the North Bay and
Mount Diablo in the East Bay. While the minimum humidity will drop
below 30% across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay
Hills, the mild temperatures, and higher than normal fuel moisture
will limit fire weather concerns. The warmest day of the week is
currently forecast to be on Tuesday as the interior warms into the
lower to upper 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s around the Bayshore, and
mid 60s to mid 70s elsewhere.
Temperatures begin to cool Wednesday through Friday as an upper
level trough approaches the West Coast. Thus, unsettled weather is
expected to return by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. However,
the ensembles are trending less with the amount of rainfall expected
during this timeframe. There is less than at 15% chance of receiving
more than 0.50" of rain across the North Bay. Regardless,
temperatures are likely to cool to below seasonal averages late in
the week and into the upcoming weekend. As we remain 6-7 days out in
time, be sure to remain up-to-date with the latest forecast
information.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Most of the stratus has mixed out this morning, leaving much of
the area with VFR conditions. Expect any lingering clouds to
continue to dissipate through the afternoon. Stratus should return
this evening, and likely stay confined to the coast.
Vicinity of SFO...A few clouds may linger around SFO this afternoon,
with VFR conditions prevailing through at least the evening hours. A
few models hint at stratus trying to return again tonight and into
early Sunday morning, likely favoring around or just before sunrise.
Confidence is low on this given onshore flow is expected to develop.
If we do see stratus, a brief period of MVFR conditions may prevail
from 10Z-14Z. If that doesn`t pan out VFR conditions are expected
the through the TAF cycle. With winds shifting from onshore this
afternoon, to weak offshore flow late tonight or by early tomorrow
morning. Onshore flow returns mid Sunday,following a more diurnal
pattern.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The southern half of Monterey Bay has
cleared out leaving much of the region with VFR conditions. Stratus
continues to hug around Santa Cruz County and the northern part of
the Bay, but should hopefully clear out for the afternoon. Tonight,
stratus should return to the Monterey Bay terminals, the question
will be when. Some of the more ambitious models have it around
sunset, while others hold off until after midnight. MVFR conditions
would be expected with the stratus though it should clear out
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 930 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Fresh breeze across the waters, with near gale force gusts for the
offshore waters north of Pigeon Point. Winds will gradually
subside through the weekend. This will translate to steep and
rough seas up to 10 feet resulting in hazardous boating
conditions. Winds continue to ease into next week with light winds
persisting across the waters through the work week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion