Pebble Grove Cemetery Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

875
FXUS64 KFWD 141819
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
119 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and rain-free weather will prevail
  through the end the week, returning early next week after a
  minor cooldown on Sunday.
- A cold front will bring a chance of storms to the region Saturday,
  with the highest chances near/east of I-35 (30-50%).
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/
Similar conditions to the previous several days will persist today
and tomorrow as ridging remains in control of the Southern Plains.
The continued warm and dry conditions will feature highs in the mid
80s to low 90s, along with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Dewpoints will mix out into the upper 40s/low 50s tomorrow
afternoon, dropping relative humidity down to ~20-30% for
portions of Central Texas and the Big Country. Wind speeds,
however, should remain less than 10 mph which will temper any more
notable fire weather concerns.
Gordon
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/
In the extended forecast, a bit of a pattern change is finally on
the horizon as a cold front and chance for showers and storms
returns late Friday and into Saturday. A deep upper trough will
be approaching the Intermountain West by Wednesday night, which
will in turn flatten the ridge and shift it farther east. This
system will take a northeastward trajectory, ejecting into the
Central/Northern Plains. Southerly low level flow will become re-
established late week, which will start to gradually advect more
moisture into North and Central Texas. A shortwave will also approach
from the S/SW with the near meridional flow overhead TX, but will
only act to bring cloud cover back to the region late this week
with no precipitation expected.
Greater uncertainty exists with the evolution of the system
heading into the weekend, with some guidance depicting a trailing
(slightly slower) shortwave that brings stronger, more pronounced
upper lift, compared to the majority of the solutions that show
the faster moving trough with upper level lift displaced. The
former solution (less likely) would result in higher coverage of
showers and storms, even with the average/unimpressive moisture
return that`s anticipated. The most likely solution is scattered
showers and storms (30-50%) developing ahead/along the front
primarily east of I-35 Saturday afternoon into the evening. With
no meaningful precip over the past couple of weeks, it will likely
be a frustrating evening for those that unfortunately miss out on
any precip. For the luckier ones, latest ensemble guidance still
isn`t very impressive, with average amounts of nil to about a
tenth of an inch. The most likely precipitation (25th-75th
Percentiles) currently ranges from 0" to about 0.75". MLCAPE >
1500 J/kg and shear around 35-40 kts in the current guidance will
support a low end severe threat to monitor as we continue through
the week.
Behind the front, northerly winds won`t last long, with a brief
shot of cooler air making its way to Texas before winds become
southerly again by Sunday night. Sunday will be a nicer day
overall with drier air and highs in the low to mid 80s, anywhere
from 5 to almost 10 degrees cooler than Friday. Ridging then
quickly builds back in by Monday with a rebound of temperatures
back into the mid 80s/low 90s to kick off the third week of
October. Another signal for precip exists in both deterministic
and ensemble guidance sometime mid to late week (beyond Day 8),
but not unexpectedly, this remains quite uncertain this far out.
Gordon
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR prevails through the period with no aviation concerns. An
easterly wind will prevail with speeds near 5 to 8 kts, with a more
NE direction at times, primarily for KACT.
Gordon
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  65  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                88  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               87  60  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              88  60  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            88  60  87  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              90  65  88  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             89  59  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           90  62  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              88  60  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       90  59  89  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion