Pelham Manor, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

471
FXUS61 KOKX 260236
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1036 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area into Friday morning.
High pressure then builds in through the first part of the
weekend. Surface front passing through area Sunday weakens with
weak high pressure for early next week. Low pressure passes
southeast of the region mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A cold front is currently passing through the area. Any heavier
showers or thunderstorms from earlier have weakened
significantly due to the lack of instability. Have adjusted
PoPs and removed thunder from the forecast. That being said an
isolated brief downpour or thunderstorm can not be completely
ruled out for Long Island or southern CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering chances of a shower for Friday morning over eastern LI,
otherwise dry weather with high pressure beginning to build in
behind the departing cold front. A shortwave creates some cyclonic
flow aloft in the afternoon with low level lapse rates steepening.
Although there will be enough moisture to trigger some cu growth, it
doesn`t look deep enough for a showers as mid levels will be on a
drying trend. Perhaps a sprinkle, but will leave this out of the
forecast at this time. The cold advection won`t be strong, so it
should still feel somewhat muggy with dewpoints slowly falling
through the 60s. Above normal high temperatures expected with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Continued dry for Friday night with low
temperatures also running above normal.
High pressure keeps the daytime hours dry on Saturday although
higher level clouds will likely filter the sunshine. Chances of
light rain or showers begin Saturday night as moisture pools along a
trough to our south and a wave of low pressure tries to form along
it.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the rest of the weekend, chance of showers early Sunday, mainly
along the coast associated with a weak front moving across and an
upper level trough axis moving across. Lesser chances of showers
thereafter. Mainly dry conditions expected as weak high pressure
approaches. Forecast highs Sunday are in the low to upper 70s.
Weak high pressure and a weak pressure gradient reside over the
local area Monday into Monday night. Meanwhile areas of low
pressure, tropical waves, well south of the area will be developing
and moving more northwest. One of them will probably be Tropical
Cyclone Humberto. Chances for rain showers have lowered compared to
previous forecast but a little higher for Monday night. Mild
temperatures still expected for high temperatures Monday, upper 70s
to around 80.
Tuesday through Thursday, high pressure remains north of the region,
low pressure to the southeast of the region. There is model
uncertainty on the positions of the lows that far out in time, which
could be still tropical cyclones. Local region will have a NE flow
during this time with chances for showers for early Tuesday for
parts of the region, but otherwise mainly dry conditions. Winds
appear to have trended more gusty for Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Temperatures trending cooler than normal. Forecast highs in
the 70s Tuesday trend down into the 60s for Wednesday and
Thursday.
Please note, for specific track and strength observational and
forecast information regarding aforementioned tropical waves and
tropical cyclones, see the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through tonight into Friday.
Improvement has happened earlier than previously forecast for
many terminals, but brief lowering to MVFR or IFR can not be
completely ruled out early tonight. Any lingering showers will
likely be light and have removed mention of thunder from the
TAFs.
Gusty S/SW up to 20kt continue for KISP and KGON, but will
likely end shortly. Winds then gradually lighten as they become
more W overnight and NW around 5 kt by Friday late morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
While improvement to VFR happened earlier than forecast, a brief
lowering to MVFR before 06z for NYC terminals is possible.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of late day or evening showers.
Sunday and Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at the NYC metro and Long Island terminals.
Tuesday: Pockets of MVFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front today will allow
ocean seas to build to around 5 feet tonight and a few gusts to
around 25 kt, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet. With the passage of
the cold front Friday morning seas will subside. SCA remains posted
east of Fire Island from 800 PM EDT tonight to 800 AM EDT Friday.
Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels Friday through
Saturday.
The long term forecast (Sunday through Tuesday night) has
conditions below SCA thresholds on all waters Sunday through
much of Monday night. Towards early Tuesday morning, ocean seas
are forecast to build to 5 ft, and higher thereafter for Tuesday
into Tuesday night, potentially up to 8 to 9 ft. There is
uncertainty this far out in time and wave heights could
fluctuate by a foot or two with subsequent forecasts. Regarding
wind gusts, those too are forecast to reach SCA levels Tuesday
night, mainly on the ocean, with otherwise, sub-SCA wind gusts
during the marine long term.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall with the rest of tonight`s showers should
total less than an inch most spots, but locally up to 1.5 to 2
inches will still be possible in the heaviest thunderstorms.
Impacts limited to mainly nuisance flooding in urban and poor
drainage areas. Cannot rule out flash flooding, but this would
be isolated in nature.
No hydrologic issues expected thereafter.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk remains for the NYC and Long Island
ocean beaches through this evening due to near 4 to 5 ft swell
and southerly winds near 10 to 15 kts.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches on Friday is moderate.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 4 ft and
developing more southerly flow of near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches on Saturday is low.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 3 ft and light
onshore flow with more easterly component near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion