Pellston, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS63 KAPX 051734
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
134 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms today; a few spicy storms this morning?
- Gusty winds, especially this morning.
- Cold and unsettled through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Split ridge over the western US attm...with col region slicing
between southern stream ridging and bubble of northern stream
ridging over western Canada. General troughing remains in place
across the eastern half of the continent...with upper low over
Ontario and its attendant occluded system looping from central
Ontario through Hudson Bay and around down the Appalachians. A train
of PV maxima swinging down through the Upper Midwest along the
perimeter of the trough attm, keeping the pattern reinforced. Most
noteworthy of these attm is a PV max punching its way across the
Upper Great Lakes attm...driven by 120+kt upper jet...and leading to
a deepening surface cyclone over northern WI/W.UP as of 7z.
Cold front stretches from this back into the central Plains
before wrapping back northward along aforementioned col region
into Idaho...and decent wind fields with this system for a
change, as the low-level jet spikes up around 35-45kts at 925mb
ahead of the system (and also 30-40kts behind).
Initial punch of PV will continue to drive its way northeastward
across northern Lake Michigan and the EUP through midday...exiting
late. Expect quite gusty southwest winds this morning, along with
showers and a few rumbles of thunder...before the front swings
through and shifts winds around to the west as they diminish going
into tonight. Should be a cold one, with little in the way of a
diurnal temperature rise, particularly across the interior higher
terrain today (warmer near Lake Huron), as cold air will be quick to
funnel in and develop overlake instability...bringing lake effect
rain showers back to the picture. These should last through tonight
as additional niblets of PV swing across the area...though not
necessarily intense all the time.
Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:
Winds Today...Have some concerns that wind advisory criteria
wind gusts will occur this morning...particularly noting that
hi-res prob guidance really likes the idea of surface winds
gusting to at least 40kts across the northern half of the CWA
this morning...but knowing that the way models derive wind gusts
can vary quite dramatically, do have to wonder how much of that
is overestimation with models running wild. Still...a fair
amount of members in one ensemble have downward momentum
transfer suggesting winds in excess of 35-40kts on guidance
soundings...and noting that 925mb winds upstream over E. WI
early this morning are running around 45kts (per VAD wind
profiler data)...do have concerns that we will be able to mix
this down, noting some potential for isallobaric influences to
enhance winds, as well as the dry slot punching in early this
morning that could also boost downward momentum
transfer...though most of the dry air is aloft with a pretty
solid moist layer near the surface, per small T-Td spreads
across the lake. (Have yet to see any obs across the lake do
better than 36kts, though, which has me leery of running with an
advisory...so am planning to run with Special Weather Statement
for a handful of hours this morning to highlight this.)
Storms Today...While we don`t have a ton of instability
today...we do have quite a bit of deep layer shear for a change,
which does have me somewhat concerned that some of our
convective activity could get a little more feisty than
expected. Think the best chance for this would be along the dry
slot (where convective instability will be maximized) as it
crosses the region; already starting to see some more convective
looking cells bubble up over Lake Michigan in the wake of the
more stratiform rain as of 7-8z. Seeing some signals of gravity
waves on satellite imagery (not a surprise, given the very
dynamic jet in the area), which could also help boost cells more
than expected. Not necessarily expecting anything severe, but
certainly not ruling out a stronger storm or two through the
morning (12- 15z) in particular.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Days 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday)...
Another lobe of PV should be swinging its way through the region
early Saturday...followed quickly by another in the afternoon,
though this one looks to track across southern Michigan for a
change. There may be a period of somewhat quiet weather later
Saturday...before the next lobe of troughing swings in from the
northwest Saturday night into Sunday. This should be the last of the
major shortwave troughs to move through...though there are some
signals for a trough to make a swipe at the EUP Sunday
afternoon.
Primary concern for the weekend will be the cold temperatures, as we
should stay pretty steady in the 50s to perhaps lower 60s,
particularly with the clouds and rain showers around. Where we are
able to clear out, particularly going into Sunday as high pressure
tries to build in...will have to monitor for potential frost/freeze
concerns, as we should largely still be under the influence of this
seasonably cold air mass.
Days 4-7 (Monday-Thursday)...
Currently expect increasing southwesterly flow across the central US
to build riding eastward into the Midwestern states going into early
next week. Here in the Upper Great Lakes, we may remain under the
influence of northwesterly flow/troughing a bit longer as we are
wont to do...with some potential for a bit of energy to move through
Monday, which could keep some of the lake-based activity going...and
could also keep a threat of frost/freeze concerns going into Monday
night. Overall, though, the Midwest should be looking at a warming
trend, at least for the first part of next week. There are signals
for another system(s?) to swing into/near our region toward midweek,
though things become increasingly unclear, really beyond Monday, for
what it`s worth.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Conditions will remain a mixed bag of MVFR/ VRF through the
period with occasional lake induced rain showers, especially PLN
and CIU. West-southwest winds gusting 25-30 kts will decrease
through the day with gusts 15-20 kts closer to the end of the
period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for
     MIZ016>018-020-021-024>026-030-031-036-042-088-095>099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...NSC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion