Penalosa, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

650
FXUS63 KICT 291722
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1222 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonably warm weather to persist through the end of
  the work week.
- Cooler temperatures and maybe some rain chances by the weekend
  or early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Early this morning, the much discussed deep layer trough over the
Desert Southwest is opening up and beginning to progress
northeastward. Meanwhile, the mid/upper ridge axis that resided over
the central plains yesterday as shifted east and is generally over
the Mississippi River Valley this morning. Just enough ascent
overspreading the central plains will allow for increasing
cloud cover throughout the day. As such, a moderation in
temperatures is expected for this afternoon with highs generally
in the low to mid 80s. This trough will pass over the region on
Tuesday; however, the lack of moisture will prevent any chances
for showers or storms. Extensive cloud cover will gradually
decrease Tuesday afternoon as the weakening trough continues
northeastward, and afternoon highs will once again rise into the
low to mid 80s. Another weak mid/upper ridge build in from the
southwest by Wednesday, and seasonably warm and dry conditions
are expected through the end of the work week. Global models
beyond Friday have been relatively consistent in showing a
rather strong deep layer trough finally breaking up this
monotonous pattern, bringing more fall-like temperatures and
potentially some chances for showers and storms this weekend
into early next week. It`s still a bit too soon to hammer down
exact details, but stay tuned to the forecast for updates
throughout the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions through the period with southeasterly winds.
Increasing mid level cloud cover expected after 00Z with BKN
cigs between 20-25k feet expected. Winds over 10 knots this
afternoon will diminish tonight, increasing again after 15Z on
Tuesday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion